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Strikeout Kings — K Prop Data Drop, 6/7
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

As betting becomes more and more ubiquitous, we've witnessed an ever-growing interest in player props, perceived as somewhat softer markets due to access and specialization. When I started polling the audience for what they'd like to see or had trouble scraping, pitcher props were easily the most popular answer.

I placed all of today's probable starters' 2025 strikeout and swinging strike rates next to their opponent, plus where that offense ranks against that handed pitcher in Ks. Then we'll pair our favorite picks for a pitching parlay.

TODAY'S PROBABLE STARTERS - June 7th:

  • BOS Garrett Crochet — 30.9% K, 13.7% SwStrk, vs. NYY 22.7% K, Rank 19
  • HOU Hunter Brown — 30.7% K, 11.2% SwStrk, vs. CLE 20.8% K, Rank 9
  • LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 28.8% K, 12.1% SwStrk, vs. STL 19.4% K, Rank 3
  • SF Logan Webb — 27.5% K, 11.4% SwStrk, vs. ATL 21.6% K, Rank 14
  • CLE Gavin Williams — 25.7% K, 12.8% SwStrk, vs. HOU 21.0% K, Rank 12
  • MIA Ryan Weathers — 25.3% K, 12.6% SwStrk, vs. TB 23.1% K, Rank 22
  • NYY Ryan Yarbrough — 24.7% K, 12.3% SwStrk, vs. BOS 23.7% K, Rank 25
  • TOR Kevin Gausman — 24.5% K, 12.8% SwStrk, vs. MIN 20.8% K, Rank 10
  • TEX Jacob deGrom — 24.4% K, 13.7% SwStrk, vs. WSH 19.6% K, Rank 6
  • TB Taj Bradley — 22.0% K, 10.6% SwStrk, vs. MIA 21.9% K, Rank 16
  • PHI Ranger Suarez — 21.9% K, 8.9% SwStrk, vs. PIT 27.8% K, Rank 30
  • NYM Clay Holmes — 21.4% K, 9.1% SwStrk, vs. COL 26.2% K, Rank 28
  • BAL Charlie Morton — 21.1% K, 10.5% SwStrk, vs. ATH 21.0% K, Rank 11
  • DET Tyler Holton — 21.0% K, 9.9% SwStrk, vs. CHC 19.6% K, Rank 5
  • ARI Ryne Nelson — 20.7% K, 8.7% SwStrk, vs. CIN 23.5% K, Rank 24
  • CHW Adrian Houser — 20.0% K, 9.9% SwStrk, vs. KC 17.8% K, Rank 1
  • CHC Jameson Taillon — 19.2% K, 9.6% SwStrk, vs. DET 23.7% K, Rank 26
  • SEA Luis Castillo — 19.1% K, 11.0% SwStrk, vs. LAA 26.1% K, Rank 27
  • MIN Chris Paddack — 18.7% K, 9.4% SwStrk, vs. TOR 18.0% K, Rank 2
  • ATL Bryce Elder — 18.0% K, 8.0% SwStrk, vs. SF 21.9% K, Rank 17
  • SD Stephen Kolek — 17.9% K, 6.9% SwStrk, vs. MIL 21.1% K, Rank 13
  • KC Michael Wacha — 17.7% K, 9.2% SwStrk, vs. CHW 22.4% K, Rank 18
  • PIT Andrew Heaney — 17.0% K, 9.1% SwStrk, vs. PHI 22.9% K, Rank 21
  • MIL Jose Quintana — 16.8% K, 6.6% SwStrk, vs. SD 19.5% K, Rank 4
  • CIN Nick Martinez — 16.8% K, 9.0% SwStrk, vs. ARI 20.4% K, Rank 8
  • ATH Luis Severino — 16.5% K, 7.4% SwStrk, vs. BAL 23.2% K, Rank 23
  • COL Carson Palmquist — 16.1% K, 6.1% SwStrk, vs. NYM 20.1% K, Rank 7
  • STL Erick Fedde — 15.5% K, 7.2% SwStrk, vs. LAD 21.6% K, Rank 15
  • LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 15.5% K, 9.0% SwStrk, vs. SEA 22.7% K, Rank 20
  • WSH Mitchell Parker — 15.1% K, 9.1% SwStrk, vs. TEX 27.3% K, Rank 29

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

From a glance, I'm expecting big strikeout games from Garrett Crochet, Ryan Weathers, Ranger Suarez, and Clay Holmes. On the flipside, using this same KISS method would suggest unders on Chris Paddack, Nick Martinez, Jose Quintana, and Carson Palmquist.

(+868) OVER STRIKEOUT PARLAY 

Ryan Weathers, Ranger Suarez, and Clay Holmes All Over 6K -- (Crochet was too pricey)

(+1587) UNDER STRIKEOUT PARLAY

Chris Paddack, Nick Martinez, Jose Quintana, and Carson Palmquist All Under 4K

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY!

Thanks so much reading, it's been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page. Don't be shy — reach out to me via DM anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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