Surging Marlins could be on pace for their best record

The unofficial midpoint of the MLB season has come and gone, which means the hunt for October is officially on. A team few expected to be in the conversation is making a push for the Commissioner's Trophy: the Miami Marlins, who have the fourth-best record in the majors (53-39).

These are the same Marlins that opened the season with the fourth-best odds to win their division. Miami also boasts the second-best record in the National League and its odds of making the playoffs have dramatically increased, despite playing in arguably the toughest division in the NL. 

So, what's the reason for the turnaround by Miami, which finished fourth in the division last season? 

Firstly, the addition of Luis Arraez.

Arraez, the 2022 AL batting champion, was acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Twins last offseason. He begins the second half of the season with a .383 batting average and a realistic shot at .400, which no player has accomplished in a full season since Ted Williams in 1941. He's also the NL leader in on-base percentage at .434 and singles with 104. 

"Arraez brings the energy every single day," first-year manager Skip Schumaker said about his second baseman, per MLB.com. "Win or lose, you know what you're going to get the next day out of him. The leadership, the energy — not only the offense, the defense has been excellent. The work ethic is second to none,"

Another reason for Miami's turnaround is resurgent OF/DH Jorge Soler.

Soler — a first-time All-Star in 2023 — is fourth in the NL with 23 home runs, the most by a Marlins player before the All-Star break since 2017, and eighth in the league in slugging percentage at .527. It's a return to form the Marlins were banking on after an injury-riddled 2022. His 23 homers are already the third most in a season of his career.

He and Arraez make up a dynamic duo that's clicking in Miami. 

"I get on base a lot," Arraez said. "Then if Soler hits a homer, we score two runs. Facing him, they need to pitch to me, because they don't want to face Soler. They prefer I get a hit and then Soler homers. I feel good with that,"

Thirdly, the Marlins are getting clutch play.

The Marlins hold 21-6 in one-run games this season. That requires a good bullpen. Throw in some luck and strong execution and you get a squad that knows how to close and can score in crunch time.

With 70 games remaining, 40 more wins would cement the best season win total in franchise history. The only negative for the Marlins is that the league-leading Atlanta Braves also reside in the NL East and don't seem to be slowing. 

However, a silver lining could exist for Miami. Both times they've won the World Series (1997 and 2003), the Marlins finished second behind Atlanta in the NL East.