Talented Marlins LHP drawing trade interest

Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo is drawing trade interest, per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The Miami rotation has been a frequent nexus point of rumors in recent years, which has continued into this winter. Just last month, Rosenthal reported on the same concept, highlighting Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers as possible trade candidates. At that time, Rosenthal portrayed Luzardo as likely off-limits, but his report from today seems to suggest it may not be totally off the table after all.

Rosenthal suggests that Peter Bendix, the club’s new president of baseball operations, might have more willingness to consider a trade than now-former general manager Kim Ng. As Rosenthal points out, Bendix came to the Marlins from the Rays, a club that has generally been unafraid to trade players at peak value. For instance, in 2018, they traded Chris Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz. They later sent Meadows to the Tigers for Isaac Paredes and are in the process of trading Glasnow to the Dodgers at this very moment.

If Bendix has any intention of bringing a similar operating style to Miami, then considering a Luzardo deal can become plausible in that light. He has three years of club control remaining, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $5.9M in 2024. He will be due raises in the two following seasons before he’s slated to reach free agency after 2026. Since he’s going to get more expensive as his control dwindles, his trade value right now is likely as high as it will get.

Of course, beyond the contractual situation, there is the on-field stuff to consider. Luzardo posted a 3.32 earned run average in 18 starts last year, then a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts here in 2023. He struck out 28.7% of batters faced over those two years while walking just 7.9% and keeping 40.1% of balls in play on the ground. That kind of performance, along with his relatively modest salary and years of control, should combine to give him a tremendous amount of trade value.

But that also makes him incredibly valuable to the Marlins and it’s worth pointing out that their situation is more precarious than in past years. Sandy Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the most recent season and is slated to miss all of 2024. The club also subtracted Pablo López from the mix by flipping him to the Twins last offseason. If they were to trade Luzardo, they would be down to Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and Max Meyer.

Pérez and Garrett make for a strong front two, but Pérez might be on a workload limit next year due to his youth and quick ascent. Cabrera has significant control problems while Rogers struggled in 2022 and then missed almost all of 2023 due to injury. Meyer has just two MLB starts and missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS. The club is reportedly planning to stretch out relievers A.J. Puk and George Soriano in the spring but there’s no guarantee that transition will work.

Given the uncertainty in the rotation, they may not want to subtract a talented pitcher like Luzardo, and there’s nothing to suggest they are actively shopping him. But if the right offer comes in, the club may have to consider it. Roster Resource currently projects the club’s 2024 payroll at $98M. Bruce Sherman bought the team at the end of 2017 and, per the data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we can see the club’s Opening Day payroll dropped from $115M that year to $100M the year after. It hasn’t been higher than $93M since.

The club could use some upgrades to its lineup, particularly in the middle infield, and may not have many resources available to do so. Even if they were willing to spend a bit more money, the best free agents available are guys like Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. While trading a pitcher would come with the risk of further weakening the rotation, it’s possible it could be their best path forward. Clubs like the Reds, Twins, Rays, Cardinals and Orioles are flush with position players and could use some pitching, perhaps allowing them to line up with the Marlins.