Tampa Bay Rays May Have Burgeoning Superstar

Aranda is not new to MLB. He is also not new to Tampa Bay. What is new, however, is how good the first baseman has been through his first 27 games this year.

In that time, he has batted .294/.396/.529 with four home runs, 13 RBI and a 166 OPS+. His .925 OPS on the year (entering Wednesday) ranks second among all qualifying first basemen, while also ranking 15th among all qualifying position players.

Aranda has already nearly doubled the amount of bWAR he had entering this season (0.7) with a 1.1 mark, and is on pace to put up an MVP-caliber season. Yes, Aaron Judge does still exist and resides in the American League.

What could be the driving factor behind the increase in production? Regular playing time. Entering 2025, Aranda had only played in 110 games at the MLB level across the last three years. In that span, he batted just .222/.309/.382 with 10 home runs, 33 RBI and a 97 OPS+ across 333 plate appearances. It's amazing what being in the lineup every day can do for a player's rhythm. 

Normally, a large jump in production like Aranda's could lead to an equally large regression to the mean. In cases like this, however, it is not that simple. Some regression is to be expected, of course, but it may not be much at all if he continues to get regular playing time.

To this point, Aranda has been the best hitter for the Rays and one of the best hitters in baseball. It took quite some time, but if the first baseman can keep this up, Tampa Bay may finally have the superstar slugger it has needed for some time now.