Taylor Rogers' Twins Reunion Has Been Complicated

Statcast tells a similarly encouraging story. Opponents have produced a .345 wOBA against him compared with a .313 expected mark. The quality of contact has been particularly hopeful. Rogers has allowed an 85.9 mph average exit velocity and a 26.4% hard-hit rate, well below the respective MLB averages of 88.6 mph and 37.1%. His 5.7% barrel rate also sits below the league average of 7.6%. Those statistics do not give Rogers a hall pass. The walks remain a problem, and underlying metrics only carry so much weight when actual runs continue to pile up.

Some of Rogers' individual pitches provide a clearer picture of where things have gone wrong. His cutter, which gives him another option against right-handed hitters, has been particularly vulnerable. Opponents are batting .375 against the pitch, and its .371 expected batting average suggests those results have not simply been the product of poor fortune, although the sample size is small at 105 pitches thrown.

His sweeper has an opposite problem. Hitters have posted a .301 average against Rogers' most-used pitch despite a much lower .222 expected mark. The gap suggests Rogers may have experienced some unfavorable results on the pitch. Opponents hit only .168 against the sweeper last season, while its whiff rate has fallen from 33.6% to 22.4% this year.

The rest of the season gives Rogers a chance to determine which version of his 2026 campaign becomes more meaningful. If his sweeper begins missing bats as it did a year ago and his ability to limit hard contact proves sustainable, his results could start moving closer to what the underlying numbers have suggested.