Texas Rangers Slugger Falling Far Short of His Bold Offseason Prediction

Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia grabbed a lot of attention when he made a bold prediction for his offensive output ahead of the 2025 campaign.

Speaking with reporters in February about the newfound health in his right knee and the adjustments he made to his swing mechanics, Garcia predicted that he would hit 50 home runs and produce 100 runs batted in.

To call it a bold call would be a bit of an understatement, as Garcia had never hit 40 homers in a season in his four full campaigns in the Major Leagues to that point, let alone 50.

But optimism abounded for the Rangers in spring training as the team looked poised to bounce back from a brutal offensive season that caused them to miss the playoffs altogether in their bid to defend the 2023 World Series championship.

Why is Adolis Garcia Falling Short of His Prediction?

So far, 2025 has looked a whole lot like 2024 for many of the culprits in that offensive regression, and Garcia is certainly among them, even if he is far from the most egregious performer.

Garcia's prediction of 50 would have meant doubling his total of 25 from the year before, and so far the 32-year-old Cuban is on pace for even fewer, at just 23.

His slash line of .236/.289/.390 has him roughly in line with his career numbers for batting average and on-base percentage But he's slugging well below his career average of .448 and his career high of .508, which he achieved in 2023 while hitting 39 homers and finishing 14th place in American League MVP voting.

To his credit, Garcia's batted-ball profile looks great from a power standpoint. He's 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 86th in barrel rate and 92nd in average exit velocity, according to Statcast data.

The latter two of those are improvements from his 2024 marks, but Garcia is simply too incomplete of a hitter for those stats to matter enough to lead to a 50-homer outburst.

He has made himself an easy target for strikeouts, as he is chasing 42.1% of pitches he sees out of the zone, missing on 30.9% of his swings, and striking out in 23.7% of his plate appearances.

All of those are far worse than league average, and they keep him out of situations where pitchers have to attack him in the zone with pitches he can drive.

These have always been weak points in Garcia's game, but given the confidence he expressed in his health and adjustments to his approach and his swing before the season, they add up to a major disappointment for a team that really needed more from him.