The American League Wild-Card Race Is Wide Open

Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals sit just 1.5 games back of the final American League wild-card spot, hoping that calling up their top prospect, Jac Caglianone, will spark them into a better position come the end of the season.

The biggest catalyst thus far in Kansas City is their starting rotation, which has been unusually burdened by Cole Ragans and his 4.53 ERA across nine starts. Kris Bubic and rookie Noah Cameron have combined for 101 innings of 1.37 ERA baseball, which shows the strength of the Royals’ pitching staff.

Competitive AL East

The 27-time World Series champion Yankees lead the AL East in thanks largely to two-time MVP winner and baseball demigod Aaron Judge’s outlandish performance thus far in 2025.

He leads all of baseball with an astounding 5.1 fWAR already. There’s not much else to say about the Yankees, as Max Fried has been a savior in the rotation and has shut down nearly every batter he’s faced. They’re on track to win this division comfortably and their division rivals are looking to catch up to them.

The Toronto Blue Jays are still trying to put together their most dangerous team since their 2015 and 2016 runs to the ALCS, and they might be on their way there.

Although Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and free agent acquisition Anthony Santander aren’t performing at their highest levels this season, other young talents like Addison Barger, Jonatan Clase, and Alejandro Kirk have helped to soften the blow of their struggles.

Starting pitching has been a particular rough spot for the Jays in 2025, although strong outings from Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman certainly aren’t rare. Toronto’s lineup needs to continue to perform the way they have in their recent sweep of the Athletics if they want to make waves in the playoff sphere this season. This team can be scary, but not if Ernie Clement has to lead the team in WAR.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been an interesting team to say the least this year. Tampa Bay fans have seen strong rookie performances from speedster Chandler Simpson, Junior Caminero, and Kameron Misner, as well as a 117-pitch complete game effort from their likely-ace Zack Littell.

In a vacuum, the Rays have been an incredible team to watch, but across the sample size of about 60 games, they’re proving to be about average.

If starter Drew Rasmussen and closer Pete Fairbanks can continue to nail down opposing hitters as they have thus far, Tampa Bay might be able to stake claim to a playoff spot. But if not, their future still looks very bright.

The Boston Red Sox are a confusing team to evaluate thus far. They sit four games under .500 and fourth place in the AL East while having one of the best hitters and pitchers in the league this year. Rafael Devers leads all of baseball with 53 RBIs and is tied for the league lead in walks with with 48 to go along with a slash line of .286/.408/.515.

Garrett Crochet, acquired in a blockbuster deal with the Chicago White Sox this past offseason, has been nothing short of the ace pitcher he was acquired to be. Crochet has thrown a league-leading 82.0 innings and 101 strikeouts to the tune of an unbelievable 1.98 ERA.

It’s needless to say that one of the keys to Boston being included in the wild-card race is the continued success of Crochet and Devers carrying their respective parts of the team.

Three-Headed Monster Out West

The success of the Mariners can be explained by two words: Big Dumper.

Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh is currently tearing the cover off a baseball while you read this, as he’s tied for the league lead with 23 home runs to go along with a team-leading 45 RBIs, 37 walks, and 187 wRC+. He’s been so good that he earned Just Baseball’s gold medal as the best AL hitter in May.

In all seriousness, the Mariners have received plenty of help from depth pieces like Jorge Polanco, Dylan Moore, and All-Star caliber outfielder Julio Rodríguez. Seattle’s pitching staff has been their key to success in recent years, as Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo yet again lead their team in virtually every statistic.

The Houston Astros have been at the center of success in baseball for about a decade now, including two World Series wins in 2017 and 2022. Their streak of seven consecutive ALCS appearances was snapped by the surging Tigers last season, but they are still a weapon to be feared in the American League.

Former ALCS and World Series MVP Jeremy Peña currently leads the team with 2.9 fWAR while Hunter Brown leads all of baseball with eight wins and has posted a 1.83 ERA across over 70 innings. Houston has five qualified batters with an OPS+ above the league average and three relievers with at least 25 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.05 or lower.

The key for Houston’s success this season is evidently going to be in the health of their stars. Yordan Alvarez, Lance McCullers Jr., and Spencer Arrighetti have the potential to spur the Astros into a division win if healthy, but as of right now they hold the second AL wild-card spot.

The Texas Rangers won the World Series in 2023, but after a tough 2024, they are looking to bounce back this season and currently sit in the middle of the AL West division.

Young superstar Wyatt Langford has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases to lead his team in both categories. The two Josh’s (Jung and Smith) have posted strong slash lines of their own, each surpassing marks of .265/.320/.400 on the season so far.

In terms of pitching, the Rangers have their own three-headed monster of Jacob deGrom (2.34 ERA), Nathan Eovaldi (1.56 ERA, 1 CG SHO), and Tyler Mahle (1.64 ERA) who have been carving up the opposition night after night.

Lefty relievers have also been Texas’ specialty this season, as Hoby Milner and Robert Garcia feature ERA’s in the low 2.00’s across over 25 appearances apiece.

The American League’s wild-card spots are certainly up for grabs, and any of the listed teams could feasibly earn themselves some October baseball if all continues as it has thus far in 2025. However, until 162 games have been played, nothing is certain.

Playoff baseball causes a lot of chaos and these leaderboards could turn upside down at a moment’s notice. Regardless of what happens, it’s looking like this race will come down to the line.