The Chicago Cubs’ overlooked catching crisis

Sure, the Cubs will still have Miguel Amaya, who’d move into the top catcher role if Kelly leaves. But there’s serious doubt as to Amaya’s durability over the course of a full season. To date, the most games he’s played in a big league season was 117 in 2024. He’s also shown himself to be just a league-average hitter at best and just a slightly above average all-around defender.

Top catching prospect Owen Ayers has been touted as the heir apparent to the Cubs’ starting catcher position, but there are significant questions about the 25-year-old, despite his rapid rise through the farm system.

Matthew Trueblood of North Side Baseball recently talked up his own skepticism on Ayers, who he mentioned as looking “lost at the plate” upon his arrival in Triple-A Iowa:

“Count me as a skeptic. It was a distortionary season for hitter evaluation throughout the minors. Batters put up huge numbers at all levels below the majors. Ayers rode that wave, but that means that his numbers need some air taken out of them. He also saw a major degradation in his performance when he went from Knoxville to Des Moines, which doesn’t feel like a coincidence.”

Trueblood also casts some doubt on Ayer’s maturity as a defender, especially in a full-time big league role.

Hopes and realities

Although there are some decent catching options available in the 2027 free agent class, none are better than Kelly—at least in the sense that they fit into the Cubs’ team mindset and address their current needs.

This would seem to point to the pursuit of a reunion being the most beneficial catching decision for Chicago this offseason. If so, the Cubs will have to offer more than their $7.5 million option for 2027 and also make the deal multi-year—always a risky proposition for a catcher of Kelly’s age and with his level of wear and tear.

The most likely move for the Cubs would be to let Kelly walk, move Amaya up to the top spot and then gamble on Ayers or a veteran one-year pickup for the backup role. And although that would be the most likely move, it’s not necessarily the best move for the team.

In a perfect world, the Cubs would bring Kelly back on at least a two-year deal to continue being part of what’s become a pretty successful catching tandem for Chicago. In that time, Ayers would be able to further develop and be in a better position to contribute to the big league Cubs.

But with Kelly, arguably, being the best all-around catcher on the free agent market this offseason, it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll be playing somewhere else next season.