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The Cincinnati Reds’ Catching Situation Is Dire

The Cincinnati Reds‘ season has come and gone, and we are once again focusing on next year’s roster at the beginning of October. This season was similar to years past, when the Reds lacked enough talent and depth to push for the playoffs. The Sal Stewart breakout and Elly De La Cruz’s ascension were welcome sights and reasons to have at least some hope for the future, but the roster needs much more.

I’ll focus on several different positions throughout the season, starting today with catcher. A position that has mostly been held by Tyler Stephenson since the 2021 season, with a revolving door in the backup position. However, Tyler Stephenson’s contract has expired, and the options behind him are rather underwhelming.

Others might want to shift their focus to different positions, such as the outfield, second base, the bullpen, or the rotation, but Cincinnati’s situation at catcher is just as crucial as any of these positions. Not only will they have to address the Tyler Stephenson contract, but they will also need to find depth at the major league and minor league levels.

Priority number one — Tyler Stephenson.

Do the Reds Bring Back Tyler Stephenson?

You’ll get mixed reviews on Tyler Stephenson, depending on which portion of the fan base you ask. For whatever reason, some thought he would be more of a power hitter than he ever was, although he never showed that in the minors. Others were frustrated with his defense behind the plate. Me? I thought he was a perfectly adequate starter and an important piece to the Reds lineup.

Across Stephenson’s 688 games in Cincinnati, he slashed .257/.335/.422 with 78 home runs, good for a 105 wRC+. He ran a high strikeout rate, an above-average walk rate, and would hit about 13 to 17 home runs. His defense was never spectacular, but the advent of the ABS system certainly helped his value, as he was one of the better catchers at challenging balls and strikes this past season.

If you’ve watched the Reds closely throughout his career, you know what type of player Tyler Stephenson is, and I don’t expect much to change. A perfectly fine catcher who is at least average, although he lacks the ceiling to be that much more. That’s okay.

Everyone, including Stephenson, thought that he would be moved at the deadline this past August. Hell, he even cried during the post-game interview in the last game before the deadline because he thought he was for sure being traded. Yet, for whatever reason, the Reds decided to keep him.

I was okay with that, so long as you reach an extension. Keeping Stephenson in Cincinnati on, let’s say, a three- to four-year contract would be ideal. He would help solidify an extremely weak position, bring familiarity with the pitching staff, and bridge the gap to a hopeful long-term replacement in prospect Alfredo Duno.

I’m not asking Tyler Stephenson to be anything more than what he has been. For a team that needs as much elsewhere, I’ll take average at catcher for now. By not trading him, the Reds have somewhat cornered themselves into having to re-sign him. Are you going to pay for a better catcher on the open market? I don’t think so.

So what would a deal look like? Below is a list of the highest AAV catchers in the league. Keep in mind, a number of these were pre-arb deals that reflect a discount.

The market’s always going to determine what a player’s true value is, and unfortunately for the Reds, there are not a lot of options on the free-agent market. Ryan Jeffers is the only other catcher set to hit the market that I would qualify as an everyday starter.

Now, if Stephenson wants to remain in Cincinnati, he might be interested in a slight discount. The deal that I keep landing on is three years for $24-$27 million ($8M+ AAV), with some variation of an option at a higher AAV at the end. While that might seem rich to some, it’s the going rate for a player of Stephenson’s caliber, especially in a market where there are so few options.

If I’m the Reds, I’m signing this deal immediately. Sure, Jose Trevino is under contract for one more season, but I don’t think that there’s any chance the Reds roll into next year with him as the starter. Will Banfield is a perfectly fine minor league depth option, but not a serious rosterable player.

I think the Reds have positioned themselves in a way that they have to sign Tyler Stephenson. No matter how high you are on Alfredo Duno, he’s still so young and has yet to debut. Even if he becomes a great starter right away, you still need a backup. If everything goes great, Tyler Stephenson slides into a backup role, Duno is the starter, and the Reds have a great catching situation.

The issue is everything doesn’t always go great, and for the Reds, the other options are very thin.

Minor League Options

I’ve mentioned Alfredo Duno a few times, and you might not be familiar with him. I get it. Not everybody follows the minor leagues all that closely. Duno, 20, is the Reds’ top prospect and a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. A serious power hitter with a vicious swing who has made strides defensively but continues to battle injuries. Considering he’s played less than 40 games above High-A and he’ll turn 21 before the season, I don’t think that there’s an immediate rush to get him to Cincinnati.

Keep in mind that catchers typically take longer on their developmental path. Not only are you going through the typical learning curve of adjusting to better pitchers, but you’re also learning how to call a game and manage a pitching staff. To me, I don’t think you can count on Duno in 2027, although it wouldn’t surprise me if he became an option later in the year.

Outside of Duno, there’s really nobody who’s projected to be a major leaguer at the catcher position for 2027. You have a number of guys who have bounced around the lower levels trying to hit enough, but haven’t. Connor Burns is a good defender but not projected to be a major leaguer. Logan Tanner is a 2022 second-round draft pick but has struggled throughout his minor league career.

The one player who’s really caught my eye from the limited looks I have had is Jirvin Morillo, a 19-year-old switch-hitter who comes with some offensive ability and a long way to go behind the plate. I would at least include his name among intriguing options at the position, but not for 2027 or 2028.

Cincinnati will once again have to sign a number of minor league veterans just to fill the Louisville Bats roster. Remember P.J. Higgins? Austin Wynns? Players of that caliber.

Finding major league catching is difficult. However, the Reds have missed on a number of draft picks over the past 5-8 years that would have helped make this problem less of one. Being in a position where there’s not a single minor leaguer that you could trust to even fill in in a major league game is nothing short of disastrous.

Final Thoughts

I think re-signing Tyler Stephenson should be the first move of the offseason. Not because I think it will be the most impactful move of the offseason, but because the options outside of Stephenson are so thin. If a different team outbids the Reds, where do they go from there?

I would hope the answer is not to rely on 21-year-old Alfredo Duno out of pure desperation. A tandem of Jose Trevino and Will Banfield? I’m not sure it could get much worse than that. We’d all like to focus on other sexier position upgrades throughout the winter, but I think catcher could be the most crucial.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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