The Dodgers May Have Just Spawned Another Pitching Stud

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been in a bit of a funk as of late.

After getting out to a red-hot start, they’ve dropped nine of their last sixteen games. This is in spite of their offense and pitching both performing relatively well overall.

On the pitching end, they’ve been somewhat hampered by injuries to Blake Snell and closer Edwin Díaz. The Dodgers have also seen some disappointing starts from starters Emmet Sheehan and Roki Sasaki.

However, one Dodgers starter in particular has exceeded all expectations to begin the 2026 season.

Left-handed pitcher Justin Wrobleski has been lights out in his first five starts. Most of his innings in the majors have come in relief, though he’s made a few starts here and there. Given this, his remarkable start has been unprecedented.

Through his first 36 innings of work, Wrobleski owns a 1.25 ERA. Excluding his lone relief appearance, his ERA drops to a staggering 0.56 ERA over 32 innings — best in MLB among starters. 

Yet, for as strong a start as he has had, his success has been very unconventional. While he maintained a high strikeout rate the year prior, this year he’s recorded just 13 strikeouts over his first five starts.

Despite owning the best ERA in baseball as a starting pitcher, his strikeout total ranks dead-last in MLB among starters with 30 or more innings so far. Evidently, this is a massive discrepancy. The question remains: is regression inevitable, or is Wrobleski’s breakout performance sustainable?

Journey To the Top

Wrobleski was drafted in the 11th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. He quickly emerged as a steal for the Dodgers at his slot, ascending through the minors to an early debut in 2024. 

His first stint in the majors left significant room for improvement, as he pitched to a 5.70 ERA over his first eight appearances. He made six starts in total and was unable to replicate his strikeout success from the minor leagues. Ultimately, he averaged a 16.9% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. 

Wrobleski’s 2025 season marked a sizable step forward. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen, making 24 total appearances with two starts and improving his strikeout rate to 27.1%. Despite a 4.32 ERA, his expected metrics demonstrated much improved outcomes overall (3.41 xERA, 2.93 FIP). 

This brings us to the present season, where Wrobleski leads all MLB starters in run prevention. He has done so without particularly dominant stuff, but he has dominated nonetheless.

In his five starts for the Dodgers this year, Wrobleski has yet to give up more than a single run in any single start. The crafty lefty has given up just two earned runs over this span. He has also gone six innings or deeper into the game in four out of these five starts.

Wrobleski’s most recent start is the most exemplary of his performance trends thus far. Coming off a four-game losing streak, Wrobleski entered the game looking to put the Dodgers back in the win column. Firing off six shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, he did just that.

His final line read six innings pitched, six hits and one walk allowed, zero runs allowed, and… zero strikeouts?

No Strikeouts, No Problem!

The discrepancies underpinning Wrobleski’s early showing this season are fascinating. Rarely do you see a pitcher prevent runs at this caliber while allowing persistent contact.

Wrobleski has generated a 99th-percentile pitching run value (11), per Baseball Savant. At the same time, his 12.5% whiff percentage and 10.5% strikeout percentage rank in the first and second percentile of MLB, respectively.

Even more interesting is the quality of allowed contact has not been particularly poor. While opposing batters have not often barreled up Wrobleski’s pitches (6.0% barrel percentage), he has allowed a 40.2% hard-hit percentage.

Additionally, the average launch angle of balls in play against Wrobleski has spiked from 6.9 degrees in 2025 to 13.6 degrees in 2026. Wrobleski’s ground-ball rate is also down over 10% this year (40.5%), while his fly-ball rate has skyrocketed by over 15% (42.2%). 

So, if Wrobleski is not striking out batters, and is not coaxing ground balls or soft contact at a high rate, what gives?