The Fastballin’ Rays are the Hottest Team in Baseball!

Rays pitchers, across the board, have increased their fastball usage by a considerable amount over the last few weeks. As a team, they’ve gone from having a 54.2% fastball rate, the 19th highest rate among Major League teams – to a 60.2% fastball rate, good for the third-highest.

Despite the uniformity of this adjustment, pitching coach Kyle Snyder said it wasn’t by design.

“There is some subjective nature to that,” Snyder said. “Sometimes it’s just a matter of making sure of count control, and the cost of the ball is always being factored in. Fastballs, generally speaking, probably the easiest pitches to throw for strikes.”

This change in approach has worked. Over this stretch, opponents are hitting .200 and slugging .346 against all fastballs thrown by Rays pitching. Opponents’ average ranks second-lowest in the Majors, and the opponents’ slugging ranks fourth-lowest. The Rays’ 1.2 Run Value per 100 fastballs indicates they have produced the second-most productive fastballs in baseball over this span.

Snyder attributed this to a litany of good fastballs in the Rays’ staff, especially in the rotation. He referenced Drew Rasmussen’s cutter/sinker combo, the low-slot carry out of Shane Baz, Taj Bradley’s 18-inch induced vertical break 4-Seamers, and more.

“It’s the quality of our fastballs,” he said.

Whether it be a starting pitcher or a reliever – a 4-Seamer, cutter or sinker, hitters are having a hard time making contact and swing decisions. Since May 20, Rays pitchers lead the league in Whiff rate against (24.7%) and Chase rate against (28.7%) against fastballs.

And when opponents are making contact, it’s exactly the kind the Rays are looking for. Rays’ fastballs have induced ground balls at a 44.3% rate, the third-highest in baseball in the aforementioned since May 20 span. This has aided an infield defense that has produced four Outs Above Average this year.

Generally speaking, throwing an abundance of fastballs comes with a risk of allowing hard contact. While 4-Seamers, cutters, and sinkers account for 55% of pitches thrown throughout the league, they also make up 61% of barrels allowed. Tampa Bay, however, has managed to alleviate these risks thanks to a stellar degree.

The Rays have allowed a 5.7% barrel rate against their fastballs in this span, the lowest rate in baseball. Starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot credits location, execution, and the ability to get ahead in counts for this team’s success.

“If you get ahead of the guy, then you have a whole lot more tricks in the bag,” Pepiot said. “You get ahead with the guy with a slider or changeup, then the fastball plays up off of it.”

Pepiot has perhaps benefitted from this adjustment more than anyone in the Rays rotation. Throwing nearly nine-percent more fastballs, his ERA has gone from 3.99 before this span to 1.78 in four starts throughout this year.

In those four starts, opponents are hitting .137 and slugging .275 against his 4-Seamer and cutter. His 27.7% whiff rate ranks fifth highest among the 76 pitchers with at least 200 fastballs thrown since May 20.

“I think earlier on the season, I was either get behind in counts and having to groove a fastball, and it was get smoked,” Pepiot said. “Now, making sure when I do throw my fastball early counts, or if I’m behind the count, either painting the edges or utilizing the ride at the top of the zone, and getting weak contact with it.”

The barrel rate against Pepiot’s fastballs was at 13.2% before May 20. Since then, it’s at 6.3%.

The rest of the Rays’ rotation has followed suit with this success. Staff ace Rasmussen was already throwing his triple threat of a 4-Seamer, cutter and sinker more than all but one qualified starter in baseball before the start of this span for the Rays. Despite that, he also upped the usage of his fastballs over the last few weeks.

Opponents are hitting .158 and slugging .171 against fastballs from Rasmussen in this span. His 3.4 RV/100 on them ranks second highest among qualified starters.

Starter Zack Littell has also surrendered a .213 opponents batting average against his 4-Seamer and sinker. He says for him, the increase in usage has been a product of the opposition.

“I’ve had a better fastball as of late,” Littell said. “I think it’s much it speaks much more to what the other lineup looks like and what we’re trying to do.”

The opponent’s RV/100 against Littell’s fastballs has gone from 0.3 before May 20 to 1.4 since.

Additionally, Bradley has allowed a .257 opponents average and .414 slugging against his fastballs over this stretch. Shane Baz has also worked to a .176 opponents average, .294 SLG and 2.1 RV/100.

The pitchers in the bullpen have held up their end as well, producing a 28.0% whiff rate against all fastballs, the second highest in baseball among bullpens.

Over their last 22 games, Rays pitchers have produced a 29.1% CSW% on all fastballs, the seventh highest rate in baseball, this, along with their league-leading chase rate, have aided their American League leading 6.4% walk rate since May 20.

This approach has allowed the Rays to do a 180° in their pitching identity throughout the 2025 season. From 2020 through 2024, Rays starting pitchers recorded the least amount of innings pitched of any team in the majors. This year, their 396.2 innings from starters rank tied for second most in the Majors.

This adjustment in pitch sequencing has played a role in the Rays having one of the most reliable rotations in all of baseball. It has also been a guiding force in their recent hot streak, making them the hottest team in baseball over the last three weeks of the season.