The Guardians Are Pitching Their Way to the Playoffs

Last year, the Guardians entered October with a rotation comprising Tanner Bibee and a whole lot of question marks. This year, it’s a whole different story.

Back in April, Just Baseball’s Michael Fisher wrote that the Guardians needed someone in their rotation to step up. Fast forward a few months, and everyone in the rotation has done just that.

Manager Stephen Vogt has run with a six-man rotation since Messick’s promotion in mid-August. Here’s how those six pitchers have performed over the past month:

Bibee has righted the ship after a rough stretch in July and August, pitching much more like the consistent, top-end starter he was from 2023-24.

Messick has exceeded all expectations. We knew he’d have to rely on command rather than overpowering his opponents, but his 3.6% walk rate and 49.0% groundball rate over his last six starts are even more impressive than anyone could have hoped.

The rest of the rotation has been every bit as good as the ace and the young gun. I can’t say I expect them all to be as successful going forward, but they deserve just as much credit for everything the Guardians have achieved.

Logan Allen has bounced back from a sophomore slump in 2024 to look a lot more like the solid mid-to-back-end arm he was in his rookie campaign. Gavin Williams has pitched his first full season, and he looks like another mid-to-back-end arm – the one we saw flashes of in 2023 and ’24.

Then there is Joey Cantillo, who has been just as good as either of them since he moved back to the rotation from the bullpen in July.

Finally, Slade Cecconi – acquired from the D-backs in the Josh Naylor trade last winter – has been yet another reliable back-end starter for Cleveland since his promotion in mid-May.

And while you just read the words “mid” and “back-end” a whole lot, we’re talking about four pitchers who have averaged 6.1 innings per start with a 2.46 ERA over the past 31 days.

The Guardians haven’t just had a six-man rotation this month. They’ve had a six-ace rotation.

No Clase? No Problem

It’s been close to two months since the Guardians lost the best closer in baseball. Emmanuel Clase has been on leave since July 28 amid an ongoing gambling investigation. Yet, with the way their bullpen has thrived in his absence, you wouldn’t know it was missing anyone, let alone the three-time reigning AL saves leader.

Before Clase was placed on leave, Guardians relievers had a 3.70 ERA and 3.91 xERA. Since then, those numbers have dropped to 2.90 and 3.05, respectively. Over the past month, the Guardians’ bullpen ERA is a microscopic 2.31, while their xERA is only slightly higher at 2.69.

Needless to say, both of those numbers are the best in the bigs.

All the more impressive, the Guardians have only used nine relievers in this span. Eight pitchers have thrown 79.2 out of 81.2 (97.6%) of their bullpen innings. Seven pitchers have thrown 73.2 out of 81.2 (90.2%) of their bullpen innings.

That’s unusual, especially this late in the year, when rosters have expanded and most teams are more desperate than ever to give their overworked pitchers some respite.

Here’s how those nine relievers have performed:

Cade Smith has filled Clase’s shoes like they were made for him. Two months ago, he wasn’t even a closer, but you could argue he’s about to be the best closer in the entire playoff field.

The next man on the depth chart is Hunter Gaddis, whose dominant breakout season in 2024 was overshadowed by the fact that he pitched in the same bullpen as Clase and Smith. Gaddis has stepped up just as admirably as Smith to fill the setup role Smith left behind.

Two more arms who deserve a ton of credit for Cleveland’s recent success are Jakob Junis and Kolby Allard. After several years of swingman duties, both Junis and Allard have settled in very nicely to more regular bullpen roles, giving the Guardians a right-handed and a left-handed multi-inning option.

Erik Sabrowski missed the first three months of the season with an elbow injury, but he picked up right where he left off in 2024, when he was Cleveland’s secret weapon down the stretch and into October.

Matt Festa has proven to be a great bargain bin pickup, earning more and more of his team’s trust throughout the year. Over the past month, he ranks third on the Guardians in appearances and average leverage index when entering games. In other words, Vogt is calling on him regularly, and he’s calling on him in moments that matter.

Zak Kent and Nic Enright round out the group, though the Guardians haven’t needed much from either. Enright has been on the IL since early September, while Kent has pitched exclusively in the lowest-leverage spots since the Guardians called him up to replace Enright on the roster.

Still, Enright was pitching well before he went down, and Kent has gotten the job done since.

Pitch Perfect

The Guardians have scored 127 runs in the past month. That’s an average of 4.4 per game. That’s not very good. Neither is their .693 OPS or 93 wRC+.

Yet, thanks to a run prevention unit that has limited their opponents to 72 runs in that same span, they’ve been the best team in baseball nonetheless.

You could’ve written the Guardians off when they failed to make any major pitching additions over the offseason. You could’ve written them off when Clase and Luis L. Ortiz were placed on leave. You could’ve written them off when they traded Shane Bieber at the deadline.

But here they are.

The Guardians are thriving. The Guardians have won more games than any other team since the All-Star break.

Once again, the Guardians are pitching themselves into October. At this point, all I can do is wonder why I’m even surprised.