The Guardians Are Surging at the Right Time

The Cleveland Guardians are one of the more well-oiled machines in baseball. A team with a limited budget that continues to find different ways to be successful, year after year, they have earned the right to be considered one of the best small(er) market teams.

Since finishing fourth in the AL Central in 2012, the Guardians have won the division six times and made the playoffs eight times, including a World Series appearance in 2016. While not without their flaws, Cleveland has found a way to pull off the impossible on more than one occasion, including last season where they went on a run to capture the division late in September.

Could 2026 be a repeat?

Since losing back-to-back games on August 13 and 14, the Guardians have gone 9-2, including seven straight wins (prior to games on 8/28), propelling them from fourth place to second place and only 2.5 games back of the White Sox.

Are they a great team? I wouldn’t go that far. But we have seen a solid yet unspectacular Cleveland club make runs before, and I wouldn’t underestimate their current roster. Detroit has all but eliminated themselves, and Minnesota is not playing their best ball, making the AL Central a two-horse race.

We have seen this from Cleveland before, and history tends to repeat itself.

Stats updated prior to games on August 28.

Cleveland’s Hot Stretch

I’m sure the first observation about Cleveland’s 9-2 record will be about the teams they played. Not exactly stellar competition.

After the Padres left town, the Guardians welcomed in the Giants, who have been a complete mess, followed by a trip out to Colorado, another mess, before completing the trifecta of messes by sweeping the Angels in Anaheim.

The combined record of those three teams is 159-243. However, taking care of business and only dropping one of those games is still important for a team that needs every win to make a run for the division. What stood out during this run was the same thing that carried Cleveland this season. Pitching.

During the 11-game stretch, the Guardians had six quality starts, all of two earned runs or fewer, and two more starts that didn’t quite reach six innings, but were at least five innings of two or fewer runs. All of the starters have been clicking.

Joey Cantillo was fantastic in his start against the Padres and followed it up with a seven-walk start against the Angels, but was able to navigate the lesser lineup, holding them to two earned runs. Parker Messick had a stellar start, going 6.2 innings, allowing only one run and striking out 10. Gavin Williams struck out 11 in his start, and Tanner Bibee held the Rockies, at Coors, to only two runs across six innings.

Foster Griffin gave the Guardians two starts, allowing a total of three runs across 11 innings. Adding Griffin at the deadline was a bit of an under-the-radar move that has shown immediate impact. A shaky first start with the team resulted in a loss, but the next three were at least five innings and two or fewer runs.

Griffin is not the team’s only trade deadline addition that is making an impact. Cleveland bought low on Jo Adell, who has posted a .777 OPS in a Guardians uniform, including four home runs in his first 20 games. Nathaniel Lowe has not been as great as he was for the Reds but has had his moments.

Perhaps the best part of the Guardians’ recent success has been the improved play from two of the key veterans, José Ramírez and Steven Kwan.

Ramírez has had a down season with injury taking its toll, but has turned it around, slashing .333/.356/.452 over the recent stretch. Kwan has been even better, slashing .356/.463/.400, giving the Guardians an answer at the top of the order.

I don’t have to explain how important these two players are to Cleveland’s lineup. You have seen how this team performs over the past few years when both are clicking, and it looks like each has found their footing.

Kwan’s .925 second-half OPS is driving offense from the leadoff spot. Ramírez’s recent improvements could be a sign of a turnaround. Although his season has been disappointing, his track record goes to show that a hot stretch is always possible.

Add Chase DeLauter‘s .864 second-half OPS and the emergence of Angel Genao, who is at least providing a high floor, and Cleveland’s lineup is starting to look much better. Their strength still lies with their pitching, but any step forward that the lineup can make is significant.

What’s Ahead

Fans of other teams are often surprised by the Guardians’ success. Cleveland doesn’t always have the strongest roster on paper, but they tend to pull off magical wins, and the late-season runs to the postseason have been ingrained in other fanbases’ minds, most recently with Detroit.

Well, the Guardians are lining up with a schedule that could produce more frustration for AL Central foes.

This weekend, Cleveland welcomes the Royals to town. Although Kansas City is in last place in the AL Central, they have been on a heater of their own, winning nine of their last 10.

Two teams that are on fire should make for a much more interesting matchup than it looks on paper. The Royals are pitching their top three in Michael Wacha, Daniel Lynch IV, and Seth Lugo (although I wouldn’t consider Lynch among their best three).

It’s the type of series in which Cleveland can make a statement. Not by taking down a top-tier team, but by proving that what we have seen over the past two weeks is not a fluke. A team as hot as the Royals is still a valuable test, even if their record says otherwise.