The Numbers Behind Rangers Reliever Jacob Latz’s Brilliant Start

Here are Latz’s baseline numbers after 11 games:

He is 0-1 with a 1.32 ERA in 11 games with one start, with 12 strikeouts and three walks. He is averaging 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings (right on last year’s pace) and averaging 0.7 walks per nine innings (right on last year’s pace). He’s allowed four hits in 13.2 innings. Batters are hitting just .087 against him.

Latz has already collected a bWAR of 0.6. He set his career best last season with a 1.4 bWAR after he appeared in 33 games, with eight starts, and went 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA with one save.   

His most interesting split is against right-handed and left-handed hitters. He’s given up four hits, all of which have been to left-handers. They’re only batting .160 against, but he’s allowed all his damage to batters on his side of the plate. Right-handers have failed to get a hit in 21 at-bats. He’s struck out hitters evenly on both sides of the plate (six each).

Statcast Numbers

Statcast numbers can be tricky for a reliever, but his pitching run value is in the 89th percentile (5) and his fastball run value is in the 95nd percentile (5). Both pitches are serving him well early in the season.

He’s also dominant in two predictive areas. First is xERA, which is expected ERA. His 1.70 is in the 98th percentile. That measures the amount of contact and the quality of contact to credit the pitcher for what happens at the moment of contact. Second is xBA, or expected batting average, .135 and in the 98th percentile. This measures the likelihood a batted ball becomes a hit based on exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed.

One can take this to mean that batters aren’t getting quality contact and batted balls are unlikely to become hits. Both numbers would be the best of his career if he’s able to maintain them.

The Bottom Line So Far

This is why Latz was guaranteed a job whether he was a starter or a reliever. He’s indispensable to this pitching staff. It’s hard to find relievers with four solid pitches, and Latz has them. He’s leaned hard into his four-seam fastball, throwing it 50% of the time, and he’s playing that well of his slider (30%). It’s why he’s a candidate for higher-leverage situations if Kumar Rocker can lock down the fifth starter job.

Through the road trip, Latz allowed hits on just four different hitting counts, some of which were surprising — 0-1, 0-2, 3-1 and 3-2. Anywhere in between and he’s been perfect.

Latz won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. He may be the best pitcher in the bullpen, all things considered.