The Orioles’ Rotation Is Their Biggest Wild Card

Of all the members of the rotation, the two that the Orioles stand to gain the most from are Baz and Trevor Rogers. If that duo can stay healthy, this rotation could challenge to be one of the best in baseball.

Let’s start with Baz, who will presumably be the O’s number three starter.

2025 was the righty’s healthiest year, making 31 starts for the Rays. However, the hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field was not too kind to the 26-year-old.

Last season, although he lowered his average launch angle and fly-ball rate while boosting his K/9 and groundball rate, hitters at George M. Steinbrenner hit .271/.338/.489 with 18 homeruns against him, good enough for a 5.90 ERA.

For comparison, Cody Bellinger, who played well enough to earn a five-year, $162.5 million contract from the Yankees, slashed .272/.334/.480 in 2025.

Now, compare those numbers to an opponent .227/.312/.373 slash line with 8 home runs and 3.86 ERA when Baz pitched on the road. Add in the fact that the righty had a xERA of 3.86, over a point lower than his actual 4.87 ERA, and Baz should be due for a rebound in Baltimore.

Next is Rogers, who is coming off the best year of his career. What once looked like a losing trade for the Orioles, who sent Kyle Stowers to Miami in exchange for Rogers, seems to be turning into a win-win.

Rogers’ rebound was largely due to the southpaw getting and staying healthy. In his time with the Marlins and in his first year with the O’s, the 28-year-old dealt with back, knee, lat muscle and bicep injuries, keeping him from returning to his 2021 Rookie of the Year form.

In 2025, Rogers’ health was marked by a regain of velocity on his fastball. In 2024, the lefty’s fastball averaged 91.9 mph, compared to 93.1 in 2025. His fastball garnered a 16 run value in 2025, making it one of the best in baseball.

The uptick in velocity created a domino effect with his secondary pitches. Rogers produced increased whiff rates and put-away percentages on his changeup and slider. This led to opponents only being able to muster a .180 batting average and .503 OPS.

Now that we have seen what Rogers can do, the next question is whether he can replicate it.

So far in spring training, Rogers has impressed in both live batting practice against his teammates and in spring training games. In his debut, the southpaw struck out the side in two scoreless innings of work.

While it is still early in the spring, the velocity does not seem to have lost a beat over the offseason. That should be music to the ears of Orioles fans, as it seems like O’s pitching coach Drew French has found a plan that works for Rogers.

With Bradish more than likely on an innings limit this year, and no other frontline starters on the team, Rogers continuing his 2025 domination in 2026 can help this team get over the hump.

Mid-Range Wild Cards

These midrange wild cards are arms that can, without a doubt, help this team win a World Series, but do not have to be relied on so much that their success is absolutely essential to the team. In this case, Bradish and Bassitt fit the bill for the O’s.

First, you have Bradish, the premier arm in the rotation since 2023.

Bradish is finally coming into a spring training healthy after dealing with elbow injuries the past two years. His return comes long-awaited, as it has been obvious this team has been missing his kind of ability at the top of the rotation.

The fourth-place finisher in the 2023 AL Cy Young race made 30 starts that year, posting a 2.83 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 168 2/3 innings of work. Since then, the righty has only made 14 starts across 2024 and 2025.

The silver lining of his injury-riddled seasons was that Bradish still showed an ability to get MLB hitters out. Across those 71 1/3 innings, the 29-year-old had 100 strikeouts and 151 ERA+. The talent is still there – he just has not had the opportunity to be able to show it.

Skipper Craig Albernaz and pitching coach Drew French will obviously be excited to have Bradish back healthy. However, they will also know that it would not be wise to put a full season’s workload on an arm that has not made it through a full season in three years.

The Orioles are going to want Bradish for the postseason. But, with a stacked AL East, they are going to need his talent in the regular season as well. How the ballclub decides to balance his workload will absolutely be a storyline throughout the year.

Yes, Bradish has the ability to be the best pitcher on the roster and be a bona fide ace for the team. However, with uncertainty looming on how his situation will look come September, the Orioles are going to rely more on Rogers and Baz to perform at their highest levels to get them to where they want to be.

The same goes for Bassitt, the most recent acquisition the Orioles have made to the rotation.

The two biggest assets that the veteran righty brings to the team are experience and the ability to eat innings. With World Series experience from being with the Blue Jays in 2025, and pitching over 880 innings in the past five years, Bassitt has the potential to be quite the tool for the O’s.

As the projected fourth starter, he will not have the same pressure as the top-end guys. If Bassitt can go out every fifth day and put the team in a position to win, he will be doing exactly what the front office is expecting of him.

As much as this team is paying Bassitt to provide productive starts for the team, they are paying equally for his influence in the locker room. With a rotation full of young arms, Bassitt’s leadership can help those guys pitch at their best when it really matters.

However, this only applies if Bassitt can produce similarly to how he did in Toronto. If the 37-year-old loses a step on the mound, or if injuries keep him from consistent playing time, the vet’s impact will not be as profound.

While Bassitt is not as monumental a signing as Framber Valdez would have been, the impact the righty could have on the other members of the rotation could be a difference-maker for the O’s.

Unknown Wild Card

The Orioles also have another wild card in Zach Eflin, who re-signed with the team in the offseason as a free agent. This season will be the righty’s third year in Baltimore after he was acquired at the 2024 trade deadline.

Eflin’s time with the O’s has been a story of two halves. In 2024, the righty had a 149 ERA+, 2.60 ERA and 1.8 BB/9. However, in 2025, the veteran only managed 14 starts, surrendering a 5.93 ERA with a .893 opponent OPS.

The 31-year-old’s 2025 season was plagued by back injuries. Eflin had three separate IL stints, which kept him from consistent time on the mound.

While the sour taste of 2025 may be fresh in Orioles fans’ minds, it is important to remember the kind of player Eflin can be when he is healthy.

When at his best, the former Phillie and Tampa Bay Ray is one of the best in the league at not giving up free passes. Eflin has a career 1.9 BB/9 to go along with a 1.236 career WHIP. By limiting traffic on the basepaths, the righty can limit damage, which should help keep the Orioles in games.

On top of what version of Eflin the Orioles get this year, questions also surround what kind of role he will have with the team in 2026.

Throughout spring training, O’s skipper Craig Albernaz has not ruled out the possibility of a six-man rotation. For arms like Bradish and Eflin, who are working their way back from significant injuries in 2025, a bigger rotation could help their recovery and keep them fresh later into the year.

Yet, six-man rotations are rare, and right now, Eflin is arguably sixth on Baltimore’s starting pitching depth chart, behind Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Bassitt, and Dean Kremer.

To make things a little more complicated, Eflin cannot be optioned to Triple-A without agreeing to go, since he has more than five years of service time. If Eflin is as healthy as he says he is, why would he go to Triple-A when plenty of teams would be willing to grab him?

So, this puts the Orioles’ decision makers between a rock and a hard place when determining Eflin’s role. While the front office does not want to lose the veteran arm to another team, having a sixth arm in the rotation could affect the other pitchers’ routines.

If the O’s were able to keep Eflin in the minors, the team would have quite an easy call to make if they needed to call someone up due to an injury. You can truly never have too much pitching.

The combined questions of whether Eflin can stay healthy and earn consistent playing time in the majors are why he is yet another wild card for this Orioles rotation.

Sink or Swim

With Opening Day just weeks away, the anticipation is growing for what this new-look Orioles team can do after a sour 2025.

With new faces in the rotation and an ace looking to pitch for a full season for the first time in three years, the rotation continues to be the biggest “what if” on the team.

There exists a world where Baz and Rogers live up to lofty expectations and Bradish and Bassitt pick up where they left off in 2025, and this rotation proves to be one of the best in baseball. However, there also exists a world where Rogers, Baz, and Eflin struggle with injuries and Bradish and Bassitt take a step back.

Only time will tell if this rotation is all-in or just a bluff.