The Padres Will Have a Lot to Replace in Free Agency

The situation with Suárez is very similar to King’s; he’s likely to test the market as well, which means Preller will have to stay aggressive if he wants to bring him back. That said, Suarez isn’t quite as necessary as King.

The bullpen could survive his departure, though there’s still some uncertainty. Jason Adam’s recovery from injury remains a question mark, and it’s hard to know whether everyone else can replicate last season’s success.

On the flip side, if the Padres want to transition Mason Miller to a starter, then re-signing Suarez will need to be a priority.

With O’Hearn, it would make tons of sense to keep him around. He would offer Preller more payroll flexibility, as he is expected to be paid roughly $11 million per year, and given his age (32), he won’t see a deal past three years.

He would solve the problem at first base, and whoever the next Padres manager is, they can confidently pencil him in at any spot in the heart of the order and expect results with slug — something the Padres severely lacked. 

Why Should Preller Let Everyone Else Walk

We can all agree that Cease has arguably the best pure stuff in baseball; however, the lack of consistency and his price tag aren’t worth it.

It doesn’t help that the Padres essentially have to pick between King and Cease, but King is the better option. Plus, the breakout of Nick Pivetta replaces Cease’s spot in the rotation.

As for Arráez, it is safe to say that the experiment is over. While I am a believer in batting average and the value of putting the ball in play, a 35-point difference in your batting average and on-base percentage isn’t going to cut it when you aren’t leading the league in average.

On top of being a minus defender, it is hard to justify paying Arráez his projected $14 million AAV.

As for the rest of the free agents, they are replacement-level talents that can be replaced fairly easily. It wouldn’t be the worst thing ever to bring back Díaz because Pivetta preferred throwing to him, but other backup catchers cost less.

What Are the Holes That Need To Be Addressed?

In a world where O’Hearn and Arráez aren’t re-signed, this would leave a big void at first base.

There is the option of Gavin Sheets, but his role is more matchup dependent. Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely that Preller can pursue a big-fish free agent like Pete Alonso, who would solve a lot of issues. 

Some potential suitors that can be signed are Josh Naylor or Josh Bell, both of whom have a similar price tag to O’Hearn and can supply power. 

The other glaring hole is in the rotation. As it stands right now, it would be Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron. This makes for an uninspiring group, which is why bringing King back is imperative.

However, if the plan is to make Miller a starter, then the group improves, but another starter should be pursued regardless. 

Someone intriguing is Zac Gallen. He is a perfect buy-low candidate after a rough year and is someone that Ruben Niebla could work his magic with. On the cheaper side, Tyler Anderson, Adrian Houser, or Tyler Mahle could all be fits for the back end of the rotation.

Final Thoughts

The Padres aren’t as far from contention as most would believe. However, the product is far from perfect.

The team’s strength resides in the bullpen, and the only way to utilize that strength is to have a lead. Slug will be a necessary addition to the lineup. As for the rotation, another arm on top of King will be key. 

At the end of the day, if there is anyone to trust in evaluating talent and putting a product on the field, Preller is the one for the job. Expect the 2026 Padres to look very different next April.