Baseball can feel extremely formulaic in nature these days. Stat collection and analysis are a huge part of the game that we love. In many ways, it has helped push the game forward.
But the numbers can only tell us so much, and ultimately, no team stats trump the wins and losses. There are many ways for a team to get enough wins to reach the playoffs.
This 2025 Texas Rangers team is proof that sometimes the numbers just don’t make sense.
We have been told for a long time that pitching and defense win championships.
In a recent interview with Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic had this to say on the subject: “If you look at the formula of our game and just winning teams in general — pitching and defense are always going to be what you want to come back to.”
I don’t disagree with Bubic’s statement at all, but this year’s Rangers are doing their best to put some doubts in our minds.
With only nine games remaining, heading into a weekend series against the Miami Marlins, the Rangers are leading baseball in several pitching and defensive statistics.
And yet, barring a miraculous comeback paired with a disastrous meltdown by some of the teams that they are chasing, the Rangers will not be participating in the postseason.
Let’s take a look at some numbers and see if any of it makes sense. Spoiler alert, it really doesn’t!
Stats updated prior to games on September 20.
The Texas Rangers’ pitching has far exceeded expectations in 2025. Sure, the starters were supposed to be a strong suit, but with two of five (Jon Gray and Cody Bradford) going down at the end of spring training, it appeared that things were going to be rough.
Yet, with rookie Jack Leiter stepping up in a big way and the free agent signing of Patrick Corbin hitting the bullseye, the Rangers’ rotation hasn’t missed a beat.
Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle have had terrific seasons (injuries aside). The club was also able to grab Merrill Kelly at the trade deadline to bolster the rotation.
Heading into the action on Friday, September 19th, that rotation has the best ERA in all of baseball at 3.39. That is salty.
And the bullpen has been solid as well. With a combined 3.58 ERA, the Rangers’ relievers currently sit fifth in baseball in the category.
The overall team ERA for the Rangers sits at 3.47, which is, you guessed it, number one in baseball. The Rangers have never finished a season first in ERA.
Second place at the time of this writing goes to the Brewers, who have a 3.60 ERA.
The second part of the pitching and defense mantra is indeed defense. This is a category that has always been a little tougher to measure, but there are some better metrics these days.
Perhaps the key statistic for measuring defensive prowess is DRS, or Defensive Runs Saved. This metric, presented in the form of runs above average, is calculated by Sports Info Solutions and featured on FanGraphs.
Team | DRS |
Rangers | 101 |
Cubs | 82 |
Dodgers | 61 |
Blue Jays | 45 |
Braves | 45 |
Texas sits at number one in MLB with 101 DRS, far outpacing the rest of the league.
It’s not just in some new statistical category that the Rangers lead baseball in defense, either. If you prefer to look at old-school numbers like fielding percentage or even just total errors committed, the club leads baseball in those areas as well.
The Rangers have a .991 fielding percentage and have only committed 51 errors all season.
Miscues happen, and there have been some games that the Rangers have lost due to untimely errors. But more often than not, their defense has kept them in more games than it has cost them.
Pitching and defense #AllForTX pic.twitter.com/sX4LNNOuc6
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) September 14, 2025
There are two sides to the equation in baseball. A team must score, and a team must keep the other team from scoring. The 2025 Texas Rangers have done an outstanding job at the latter.
Sure, they could have done better still, but when a team is leading all of baseball in both pitching and defense with only nine games left, they are dang sure doing something right.
Early on this season, the Rangers’ offense was nonexistent. That is a fact. But then the guys started hitting, and better yet, scoring runs, and they have put up some solid numbers over the back half of the season.
Just looking inside the state of Texas, the Rangers have scored more runs than their AL West rival Houston Astros. The Rangers have scored 653, and the Astros 652.
Yes, I am aware that the difference in those two numbers is only one. But when you look at the number of runs allowed between the two teams, it paints a very different picture.
The Rangers have a run differential of +87, while the Astros are at +27. In fact, the Rangers’ +87 run differential is tied with the Tigers for third best in the American League and seventh best in all of baseball.
With those types of numbers, the Rangers’ 86-67 expected win-loss record is first in the AL West, third in the American League, and seventh in MLB. Unfortunately for Rangers fans, it’s a team’s actual W/L column that determines who makes the postseason.
The road has also been extremely unfriendly to the Rangers. At home, the club has an impressive record of 47-28. On the road, however, the Rangers have managed to go just 32-46 thus far.
Almost everyone loves home cooking and their own bed better than sleeping in a hotel and eating takeout. But going from a .627 winning percentage at home to a .410 on the road is mind-boggling.
That is a good way to sum up the Rangers’ season with nine games remaining: Mind-boggling.
They lead the league in pitching and defense and have one of the top run differentials in all of baseball, and yet, they are most likely going to have to sit and reflect on a season lost for the next five months. Yes, mind-boggling.
That is where the Rangers find themselves, and that is how it has played out. About the time that you think that you have seen everything that you can in baseball, something else comes rolling your way.
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