The Real Issue With the Cincinnati Reds’ Offseason Plan

If you are a Cincinnati Reds fan, you are living in some sort of dream state, or likely nightmare, based on this off-season that started out with so much promise. Reds Nation had just made the playoffs for the first time since 2012.

Yes 2012, not some shortened season (2020) or a playoff game where not claiming Marlon Byrd (2013) came back to haunt you. The punchline to that 2013 play-in game was the Pirates then picked up Byrd off waivers, and he single handedly escorted the Reds out of the playoffs. So yeah, in real baseball, 2025 was the most exciting season since 2012 for the fan base.

Launching every fan into what-ifs for the off-season. There was buzz about Kyle Schwarber coming home. It was a kind of tunnel-vision that was short sighted. Possibly the need for a plan that actually fit the team's current roster structure and depth chart was needed to flesh out a little bit. Don't be so emotional and buy that luxury automobile without checking on all the maintenance and those tags! Those tags were just going to be another check the organization would have to cut every year.

So, what happened? The story is that Schwaber chose to go back to the Phillies over the hometown, 45-minute drive, Cincinnati Reds. But wait a minute... All the excuses of the internet popped up like a bad game of Whac-A-Mole Pro.

"Here we go..." as Heath Leger's Joker would say.

The Reds didn't offer enough. The front office did not talk him into it. Ownership didn't say the exact closing pitch. Signing Schwarber was only an effort to spur ticket sales in an all or nothing swing. Well Reds Nation, I have it on good authority that Schwarber was always going back to Philadelphia.

Even if ownership backed up the Brinks Truck at $150 Million for 5 years, or $180 Million for 6 years, or heck even $150,000,001 over 5 years for that matter, Schwarber was going back to Dave Dombrowski with a number on a napkin that he had to beat.

The offseason plan on paper sounded good. Sign coming 33-year-old DH Kyle Schwarber to a 5-year deal covering ages 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 for $30+ Million each year of 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, & 2030. Yeah, go ahead and re-read that.

Is your brain wrapping around that last mini paragraph? Are you noticing the rub here? The Reds have a payroll budget of around $119 million to $130 Million and that's being generous. There is no TV money injection going on. You really wanted them to hitch the proverbial wagon to a 33-year-old Designated Hitter, who cannot play the field, plus pay said "hitter" $30+ million annually for five seasons? Oh my, what could go wrong?

Well, I would argue that signing a 33-year-old who has likely come off his ages 29-30-31-32 baseball PRIME was not a good idea. Schwarber averaged 47 home runs, 132 hits, 107 walks, and 202 K's per season over that four-year time frame. When you do the math, you have a "Three True Outcomes" player. Taking recent baseball history into account and running a few models. The likelihood of Schwarber being productive, or healthy for that matter, for $30 Million per year over the life of the contract is not probable.

Now the idea that Schwarber does indeed carry similar numbers through four to five seasons could also literally happen. Schwarber is a legit force and quite possibly should've been the 2025 National League MVP. That being said, the Philadelphia Phillies can afford to put their chips on Schwarber. They had a $307 Million payroll in 2025. Based on today's estimates, 2026 is already $296 Million and counting. The Cincinnati Reds simply cannot put all their eggs into that specific player's basket.

For a Reds front office and ownership group who has really tried and made great efforts to spend money: Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Jeimer Candelario are examples of their spending.

You will see where missing on Moose and Candy really hurt the organization in a number of ways, from financially hindering the club, resulting in roster holes, to a lack of productivity and development on the field. You miss on $15 million to $20 million for a year or two, that's one thing. Missing on 3-4 years on the backend of a $150 million contract on a mid 30's player who may or may not live up to the contract is not a luxury the Cincinnati Reds can do.

If the Reds front office does put that kind of investment into the organization, and make no mistake, now is the time. They should have pivoted to Pete Alonso immediately, which is exactly what the Baltimore Orioles did after losing out in the Schwarber sweepstakes. Now I know Alonso is 31, but a 5-year deal covering ages 31 to 35 is a different kind of financial exposure than the same contract from ages 33-37. Not to even mention the organizational roster depth at first base is thin to say the least behind Sal Stewart and Cam Collier.

In roster construction, this specific team could use a right-handed power hitter to hit behind Elly De La Cruz, who not only does protect the up-and-coming franchise superstar but also lengthens out this inefficient lineup. When looking to fill that need on an up-and-coming roster that is ready to turn the corner.

The ideal plan is to look at the free agents who will be available over the next few seasons and choose wisely on the age, position, and what player fills the voids that your team currently doesn't do well. The real issue here is not that they did their due diligence on Schwarber, it's that it was the only plan and not Plan A.

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