The Reds Have a Future Stud in Alfredo Duno

Duno has a build that he likely won’t be able to add much to. He’s already looking like a grown man; I think even more power will come, but not from growing into his body but instead maturing as a hitter.

His eye for the zone and ability to lay off pitches breaking out of the zone is impressive for anyone, yet alone a 19 year old. Of course, some of the pitchers in the Florida State League lack any sort of command, but not chasing pitches you cannot do damage on is a good sign nonetheless.

The next step in his development will be making more contact in the zone, where he has been below average.

I think a player like Duno will likely carry average to below-average contact rates. Although the strikeout rate of 18.4% is promising, there’s still swing-and-miss in his game, and there are issues appearing against breaking balls.

Luckily, he has time to improve. Many young players struggle with breaking balls, and even if he does not show drastic improvement, his ability to hit fastballs gives him a great chance to still find success.

At the end of the day, the best version of Duno will be as power hitter. You can live with a lower batting average if he continues to walk at a well-above-average clip while also demonstrating the ability to leave the yard at any moment.

We are seeing these flashes more often as he continues to lift the ball, and it’s not just to his pull side either:

The video above shows how ridiculous the power is. This pitch is low and away, and Duno drove it to the right-center gap and over the wall with authority. Watch that clip again and try to focus just on the ball the entire time. You can see the way it jumps off his bat is just different.

The development really started to blossom late in the year as he continued to distant himself from last seasons injury. In the second half, Duno slashed .309/.445/.580 with 11 home runs and 48 walks compared to 35 strikeouts. I think it is more likely a sign of a player blossoming rather than just a hot stretch. That tells me that his ceiling is still rising offensively.

Duno’s Defensive Profile

The first knock you will hear about Duno is likely going to be about his defense. Duno did not receive the highest of marks behind the dish to start his career, but he has shown improvement. When you watch him play, you don’t immediately think this project is not going to work.

I was hesitant to believe he would stick behind the plate until I sat down and watched him more. Granted, I couldn’t see every game and some of the Florida State League camera angles look like your uncle’s footage from your grade school baseball game, but there’s enough skill to work with.

For beginners, Duno’s arm is going to be good enough to stick. He threw out 24% of runners this year, which is a good number especially when you consider how raw the pitchers are. It is still a work in progress, but signs are pointing in the right direction.

The reason so many catchers debut at an older age than other position players is because of how difficult defense is behind the plate. Not only are you learning framing, but you are learning how to manage a pitching staff and call a game. The cerebral side of catching takes a ton of reps, and Duno missing most of last season didn’t do him any favors.

How he develops behind the plate is something we probably will not get a clearer picture of until he’s in Double-A or so. Working with pitchers who can hold runners better is going to show his true ability in a brighter light.

What I can say is that he was better than I had anticipated. The movements and tools are there, and now it’s about refining those tools and packaging them to become at least an average defender. If he can do that, he’s trending toward being the Reds’ catcher of the future.

How Duno Plays Into Long-Term Plans?

Before the season started, the Reds not only traded for veteran Jose Trevino, but they signed him to a three-year extension. Cincinnati’s backup catcher situation had been a complete mess for a few years, and Trevino has been a solid piece in stabilizing the situation.

We all know Tyler Stephenson is the 1C. The 29 year-old has been the preferred catcher since the 2021 season, and has slashed .262/.338/.427 for a 106 wRC+ in his career. Stephenson has slowly improved behind the dish and hits well enough to be a starting catcher in majors, but the 2026 season is his last of team control.

Catchers are expensive, and the Reds are a small-market team. That combination rarely works out in their favor, but an extension is not outside the realm of possibilities. However, I think part of the Trevino deal was to get insurance in the event that Stephenson hits the market.

I think the most likely scenario is that Stephenson tests the waters after next year and the Reds sign another catcher as a stop gap, to pair with Trevino, until Duno is ready to debut.

Stepheson will be 30 when he hits the market, and (depending on 2026 performance) will likely get a multi-year deal. If the Reds are not comfortable tying up the money and years into both Stephenson and Trevino, they have to pivot.

Signing a veteran to a one-year deal in 2027 would serve as a natural bridge to Duno. Let’s say Duno starts in High-A Dayton in 2026. He could hit his way to Chattanooga by the end of the year while also starting there in 2027.

I’m not in favor of rushing catching prospects unless they truly force the org’s hand, so 2027 could be a mix of Double-A and Triple-A, leaving a clear path to the 2028 roster.

If he plays at a level that demands he be called up at any point during the 2027 season, the Reds could move on from said stop gap or Trevino, who will be in the final year of his contract, minus the 2028 club option.

I’d rule out the possibility of Duno reaching the majors in 2026. You don’t see many catchers go from Low-A one year to the majors in the next. His timeline is lining up where no matter if Stepheson is signed long term or not, finding a spot for Duno would not be too complicated, especially if you work him in at DH.

Final Thoughts

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Duno hype was a bit premature before the season. I was even willing to move him in a trade to help the team this season. Let’s just say I am glad to be wrong on that predication.

Finding catchers with this type of power potential is rare. When you get one, you should hold onto them. Sure, Duno has to make some adjustments before anyone claims that he is a sure thing, but I cannot think of many Reds prospects who have impressed me more this season.