The Reds Whiffed on the Luis Castillo Trade

We all know the struggles and disadvantages that hinder small market teams. Limitations with money also lead to limitations in risk, making each move they make more crucial, as correcting mistakes isn’t an easy path. The reason teams like the Brewers, Guardians, and Rays find sustained success is because of how well they do three things.

Draft, develop, and trade.

For the Cincinnati Reds, the same three things are equally as important. While the draft and develop discussion can be saved for a different day, the trade piece is what I want to focus on today.

Cincinnati acquired Luis Castillo from the Miami Marlins for Dan Straily. A trade that netted the Reds six seasons of 3.62 ERA pitching across 137 starts. Without a doubt, the type of trade Cincinnati needed to capitalize on, and they certainly did, and then some.

After failing to find success with an attempt at building a playoff team, the Reds moved Luis Castillo at the trade deadline in 2022 to the Seattle Mariners for four prospects – Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Andrew Moore, and Levi Stoudt.

It was the second Cincinnati/Seattle trade of the year, after the teams swapped Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez for prospects in March.

We already know the Winker/Suarez trade didn’t work out in the Reds’ favor, and now the Luis Castillo trade is falling the same way.

Stats updated prior to games on August 21.

Top Prospects Failing To Meet Expectations

If you read the trade package from the paragraph above and didn’t recognize a couple of names, you probably are not alone.

Andrew Moore is a relief pitcher who never made it to the majors, is no longer in the organization, and is in Double-A for the third straight season. He was more of a throw-in than a prospect who was seen with much prospect value as part of the trade.

Levi Stoudt, who was surprisingly rated rather high in the Mariners prospect rankings before falling past 10 when he joined the Reds, is also no longer in the organization. Stoudt pitched a total of 10.1 innings with the Reds in 2023 (his only major league time) with a 9.58 ERA, before bouncing around on waivers. He is now in the Phillies organization recovering from an injury.

Those two arms flopped for the Reds, but neither was seen as the primary piece in the return. For Cincinnati, the top pieces were third baseman Noelvi Marte (then Seattle’s No. 1 prospect) and switch-hitting shortstop Edwin Arroyo (then Seattle’s No. 3). Two bats who would help solidify the Reds infield for years to come, stacking the Reds’ prospect power alongside Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz.

Let’s start with Marte. Like a few other Reds prospects, he debuted in 2023, slashing .316/.366/.456 with a 120 wRC+ across 35 games and looking like the real deal. Then came an 80-game PED suspension eating into his 2024 season, which was a disaster in every way possible.

His defense at third was far from major league caliber, which quickly shuffled him to the outfield, where his 2025 season gave us hope. A .263/.300/.448 slash with 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases wasn’t quite a breakout, but enough for fans to think a promising future was still possible. Then 2026 happened.

Right out of the gate, Marte looked lost at the plate. Swinging at everything, no matter the pitch or location, and rarely making contact quickly led to him being sent to Louisville midway through April. The numbers he posted in Louisville made it look like Marte found his footing, but a deeper look exposed that his biggest flaw was still there.

This week, Marte was once again optioned to Triple-A in what manager Terry Francona described as “a pivotal time” for him. My interpretation: his last chance.

In 201 plate appearances this season, Marte slashed .189/.229/.321, good for a 44 wRC+. Not only were the numbers bad, but so was the process. What sent him to Triple-A was awful swing decisions, which had held true twice this season.

Marte has yet to show any growth in his plan at the plate. Nothing has changed, and the shiny prospect label has worn off. For the other prospect in the trade, Arroyo, that prospect label is starting to fade.

My biggest question about Arroyo was always whether he would hit enough to be an impact player. Sure, his defense would hold value, but would he be a bottom-of-the-order, defense-first player or something more? Throughout his time in the Reds organization, it looked like a defense-first label was coming. Then he reached Triple-A.

Arroyo started this season scorching hot and appeared to make some stance and swing adjustments that gave hope for a more impactful bat. Another year removed from an injury that cost him the 2024 season and another year of maturity played a role as well.

He was given a chance in Cincinnati, and what we saw wasn’t the same as he showed in Triple-A. A slap hitter that also swung at bad pitches led to a .244/.286/.282 slash and 54 wRC+ across 142 plate appearances.