The Stability of Hunter Greene’s Dominance

Hunter Greene’s Dominance Emerging in Reds Rotation

Greene’s Early Career Struggles

Greene was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in recent memory thanks to his electric arm. He made it to the big leagues at just 22 years old, making 24 starts in 2022. The results were as expected for a young power arm, as he posted a 4.44 ERA in 125 2/3 innings.

Greene has struggled with the long ball, surrendering a whopping 24 of them. His HR/FB (home run to fly ball rate) was at a sky-high 16.1%.

The following season wasn’t much better either, as Greene made 22 starts, posting a 4.84 ERA in 112 innings. He surrendered 19 home runs this time around, with a 14.3% HR/FB.

It was looking like this was an issue that would haunt Greene for years to come, as it was one of the only areas of the game where he struggled. He had the ability to generate swings and misses at an incredible rate, as he was in the 80th to 90th percentile in both 2022 and 2023 for Whiff% and K%.

A big issue behind Greene’s struggles was his fastball location. Despite it averaging a blistering 98 MPH, he often left it right down the middle of the plate, allowing hitters to square it up. Pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park doesn’t help, of course, but Greene was causing self-harm with his fastball location.

2024 Breakout Season

To put it simply, Hunter Greene was one of the major leagues’ best pitchers in 2024, and would have garnered significant National League Cy Young Award interest if not for a late-season injury.

Here are Greene’s numbers in his 2024 All-Star season:

26 GS – 150 1/3 IP

2.75 ERA

3.03 xERA – (89th percentile)

.188 xBA – (96th percentile)

87.3 Avg Exit Velocity – (86th percentile)

29.7 Whiff% – (81st percentile)

27.7 K% – (81st percentile)

5.2 Barrel% – (87th percentile)

32.5 Hard-Hit% – (92nd percentile)

It was a true breakout in every facet of the game for Hunter Greene, skyrocketing him up the list of MLB starter rankings. He cut down on the home runs allowed, with just 12 (6.9% HR/FB). The only question that remained was whether or not this breakout was sustainable.

Greene’s 2025 Season

Due to the groin injury, Greene has made just 16 starts this year, but they have been 16 fantastic starts.

16 GS – 90 1/3 IP

2.59 ERA

3.04 xERA – (87th percentile)

.212 xBA – (88th percentile)

90.2 Avg Exit Velocity – (27th percentile)

32.7 Chase% – (90th percentile)

31.8 Whiff% – (91st percentile)

32.0 K% – (93rd percentile)

5.4 BB% – (91st percentile)

10.0 Barrel% – (20th percentile)

44.3 Hard-Hit% – (20th percentile)

Despite his 11.4 % HR/FB being higher than in 2024, he is allowing way fewer base runners compared to the past, making those home runs hurt much less. Greene’s rare combination of power and command is truly a beautiful sight to see.

The only question remaining is, can he stay healthy for a full season? He has dealt with numerous injuries in his early career, although none have been too serious. Greene is, without a doubt, Cincinnati’s ace, and he comes at an extremely affordable price as well.

Greene signed a six-year, $53 million deal back in April of 2023. If Greene continues at this pace, this will become one of the biggest bargain deals in MLB.