The Toughest Contract Decision Facing the Giants This Winter

The strongest argument starts with his pitches. Doval’s cutter averaged 98.8 mph in 2026, and his slider generated misses on 48.4% of swings. Those are compelling tools for a team searching for pitchers who can escape trouble with a strikeout.

Doval struck out four hitters over two scoreless innings against the Dodgers after the Giants reclaimed him in September. A pitcher who can deliver that kind of performance remains worth evaluating closely.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey has made the bullpen an offseason priority. Retaining Doval would preserve an experienced option while the front office pursues additional help.

The commitment would cover one season. That limits the duration of the financial risk, while replacing his combination of velocity and swing-and-miss ability could require a larger or longer investment in free agency. If Doval regains consistent command, the Giants could receive valuable late-inning work without a multi-year guarantee.

The Risks Behind the Projected Price

The full season provides the strongest counterargument. Doval finished 2026 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 60.2 innings. Two scoreless September appearances offer little evidence that his broader inconsistency has been resolved.

He walked 12.1% of the batters he faced. His strikeout rate was 24.2%, down from 31.0% during his All-Star season in 2023. The slider remains effective at generating misses, but his overall results fall short of the dominance that makes control problems easier to tolerate.

That creates a role problem. If San Francisco needs another pitcher to handle its most important late-inning situations, Doval’s projected salary becomes a substantial investment in a less certain assignment.

Within the Giants’ broader contract decisions, that money and roster spot should support a clear plan. Retaining Doval would make more sense if the club trusted him to anchor the rebuilt bullpen. His recent performance makes that difficult to justify.

The Giants should explore a trade before the tender deadline and non-tender Doval if no deal materializes. They could discuss a cheaper reunion afterward, understanding that he would become free to sign elsewhere.

That recommendation accepts a real risk: Doval could regain his best form with another club. San Francisco should accept that possibility and redirect the projected commitment toward pitchers with steadier control. His arsenal makes this a difficult decision, but the Giants need more confidence in the innings they are buying.