The Toughest Contract Decision Facing the Padres This Winter

The San Diego Padres have countless decisions to make as they stare down the barrel of what appears to be one of the longest offseasons of recent memory.

With the core of the Padres not getting any younger, paired with the non-age-related troubles that plagued the Friars this season, perhaps the biggest (and most-complicated) contract decision facing San Diego is that of Nick Pivetta.

Ahead of the 2025 campaign, Pivetta inked a four-year, $55 million deal which included a stipulation that went into effect this past August.

Following a first season with the Padres that saw the right-hander notch career-bests in bWAR (5.0), innings pitched (181.2) and ERA (2.87) in 31 starts, Pivetta made just four lackluster starts in before landing on the injured list for nearly five months.

A flexor strain in his elbow was not only the reason for his time off the mound, but also why San Diego is now able to void the final two years and $32 million of his contract, since he spent more than 130 consecutive days on the injured list, triggering the aforementioned stipulation.

The Padres restructured the deal so that Pivetta's $14 million player option now becomes a club option. With players like Manny Machado owed nearly $40 million a season for the foreseeable future, along with Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill on the books with significant salaries for years to come, the question is now where the $14 million can best be utilized.

Pivetta tossed a 1.45 ERA through his final four starts of the regular season (18.2 innings) and struck out eight in his two postseason starts (7.2 innings), to three earned runs. The right-hander turns 34 years old on Valentine's Day while the 2027 season has no clear starting date in sight.

San Diego also had abysmal starting pitching this season which resulted in the second-highest usage rate of their bullpen in baseball (and the highest in the National League). Despite the 647.2 total innings through the regular season, the relievers were the fourth-most effective in baseball with a 3.31 mark.

Perhaps the extra regular season miles added to the already tall task of the postseason is what proved to bend the bullpen beyond the point of their dominance fans had been so used to. If starting pitchers were able to go deeper into games, the hurlers in relief would have that much more rest time.

The same reasoning with Pivetta goes for the other starters on a long list of Padres free agents, but smart spending on critical players is going to have to be the theme of the offseason.

So, will the Padres keep Pivetta for $14 million, or decide his risky elbow history is enough to cut him loose and spend that money elsewhere?

With the team set to lose a majority of its starting rotation to free agency, the decision could prove critical.