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Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates after hitting a home run in the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners during game four of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Three Numbers to Know for Blue Jays-Mariners ALCS Game 6 Showdown

Originally posted on Toronto Blue Jays on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Oct 19, 2025 7:00 PM ET

It’s a do-or-die moment for the Toronto Blue Jays. If things go right, they’ll get another do-or-die moment on Monday night.

The Blue Jays enter Game 6 of the American League Championship Series down 3-2 to the Seattle Mariners in the series. Toronto must win on Sunday to force a Game 7, which would be a winner-take-all showdown on Monday.

The stakes are clear. If the Mariners win one more game, they’ll head to the World Series for the first time in franchise history and face the Los Angeles Dodgers, who swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS.

If the Blue Jays win both games, they will go to the World Series for the first time since 1993, when Joe Carter hit the second championship walk-off home run in World Series history in Game 6.

Here are three numbers to know going into Sunday’s game, as gathered by Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling.

Blue Jays Offense

Blue Jays offence this postseason...

...in its five wins: .365/.402/.688, 15 HR, 49 runs
...in its four losses: .186/.276/.295, 2 HR, 12 runs
— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) October 19, 2025

It doesn’t get much more stark than the Blue Jays’ slash line when they win or lose a postseason game in 2025. When Toronto wins, it mashes. When it loses, it doesn’t.

Another way to look at it is runs scored. In Toronto’s five postseason wins, it is averaging 9.8 runs per game (45 runs). In the Blue Jays’ four postseason losses, they are averaging 3.0 runs per game (12 runs). If Toronto wins on Sunday and Monday, it will do it with the bats.

Elimination Games

Home teams have won 10 of 12 elimination games this postseason. The two losses: Guardians in WC & Yankees in ALDS

Blue Jays are on a two-game home losing streak; they lost three straight at home twice during reg season — April 19-29 (SEA, SEA, BOS) & May 3-13 (CLE, CLE, TBR)
— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) October 19, 2025

This bodes well for the Blue Jays. The Guardians ran out of steam in Game 3 of that AL wild card series with the Detroit Tigers after a huge surge to make the postseason and win the AL Central. The Yankees, of course, lost to Toronto in Game 4 of the ALDS as the Blue Jays won, 5-2.

Toronto has been one of the best teams at home in Major League Baseball in 2025. Toronto was 54-27 at home. Which makes their two-game losing streak at home in the playoffs stunning. The Blue Jays handled the Yankees rather easily at home, outscoring them 23-8.

Mariners Mash

Highest rate of runs scored via HR in a best-of-seven postseason series:

1⃣ 2017 Cubs, NLCS — 100% (8 of 8)
2⃣ 2012 Tigers, WS — 83.3% (5 of 6)
2⃣ 2012 Yankees, ALCS — 83.3% (5 of 6)
4⃣ 2021 Red Sox, ALCS — 82.1% (23 of 28)
5⃣ 2025 Mariners, ALCS — 80% (20 of 25)
— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) October 19, 2025

Yes, Toronto has brought the offense when it wins. But the Mariners bring the long ball, especially in this series. That’s the fifth-best home run-to-scoring ratio in MLB playoff history. Seattle is cashing in on chances that Toronto hasn’t especially in those three losses. If the Blue Jays want to win the final two games, they need to keep the Mariners in the ballpark.