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Detroit Tigers designated hitter Kerry Carpenter (30) bats against Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tigers Magic Number Scenarios Entering Huge Series Against Guardians

Originally posted on Detroit Tigers on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Sep 23, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers starting on Tuesday and the stakes are enormous for both teams.

Detroit (85-71) is a game ahead of Cleveland (84-72) in the American League Central. The Guardians are tied with the Houston Astros (84-72) for the final AL wild card berth. But, Cleveland would much rather win the division, and if it did so it would be a comeback for the ages.

At one point this season Cleveland was 15.5 games back of Detroit. If the Guardians finish the job, it would be the biggest comeback in MLB history to win a division, whether it’s the division era (since 1969) or pre-division era.

Detroit will have to turn things around. The Tigers have lost their last six games — including three losses to Cleveland — and have lost nine of their last 10. The Guardians have been as red-hot as any team in baseball and swept the Tigers last week in Detroit. This head-to-head matchup gives the two teams the rare chance to settle things against one another, as opposed to relying on others for help.

So, how could this play out? Let’s explore the possibilities.

Detroit Tigers Magic Number

The Tigers’ magic numbers look like this. Detroit has a magic number of six to win the AL Central title. That’s a combination of Tigers wins and Guardians losses. When it comes to clinching a playoff berth, the magic number is five. That’s regardless of whether the Guardians or the Houston Astros occupy the final wild card slot.

Detroit also has a one-game lead in the division. It’s not the wiggle room the Tigers had a few weeks ago. But it’s still margin for error. Based solely on what could happen against Cleveland, this is how Detroit could improve its playoff standing or implode before the series ends.

Detroit Sweeps: Tigers take four-game lead, clinch playoff berth, clinch AL Central title.

Detroit wins two of three: Tigers take two-game lead, cut playoff berth magic number to one and AL Central magic number to three. Guardians would own tiebreaker over Tigers with one victory, leaving magic number at three instead of two.

Detroit wins one of three: Tigers and Guardians tied, cut playoff berth magic number to three and AL Central magic number to five due to tiebreaker.

Detroit swept: Guardians take two-game lead. Guardians would have tiebreaker and magic number of one to win AL Central.

Detroit’s last division title was in 2014. The Tigers’ season comes down to the next three days.