Oct 10, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; (Editors note: Alternate crop) Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the third inning during game five of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Tigers' Tarik Skubal Gets $280 Million Contract Projection

Originally posted on Fastball on SI | By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Jan 27, 2026 9:20 AM ET

The year of Tarik Skubal is upon us.

Soon, the Detroit Tigers and their ace are likely to haggle over whether a two-time Cy Young winner is worth $32 million for one season in arbitration or $19 million. The result of that case will have long-lasting ramifications for future players in arbitration, but there are even bigger league-wide implications at play.

Skubal could either be the biggest name traded this decade, the pitcher who signs the biggest contract in the history of the sport, or both. What the Tigers decide to do over the next six months will be heavily scrutinized, and the rest of the league will inform that decision with their interest.

If you like our content, choose Sports Illustrated as a preferred source on Google.

What will Skubal's next contract cost; will Tigers trade him as a result?

On Tuesday, Jim Bowden of The Athletic projected that Skubal could cost Detroit (or any team) $280 million, based mainly on the contract outfielder Kyle Tucker just got from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The obvious implication is that Detroit might pivot to looking for trades for Skubal if they find it impossible to afford that next deal.

"The Tigers have listened to trade offers and at least talked about the 'ballpark' parameters it would take to trade him. According to club sources, the asking price is so significant that it is unlikely a trade happens unless Detroit lowers its sights significantly," wrote Bowden.

"So, where do the Tigers go from here? They could continue to try to extend him, keeping in mind what this year’s free-agent class has done to the market. If Kyle Tucker is worth $60 million per year, what would Skubal get on a comparable four-year deal? $70 million per year?"

The free-agent market will also be heavily impacted next winter by whether Skubal is available or already spoken for. And with a lockout looming on Dec. 1, there will be pressure on teams that need pitching to get their shopping done quickly.

For high-budget teams like the Dodgers, New York Mets, or New York Yankees, trading for Skubal might not be worthwhile if those teams were already planning on attempting to sign him as a free agent. And if teams don't think they can afford him in a year, would they risk unloading their farm systems for him now?

All of this is to say that the Tigers simply might not find what they're looking for in terms of trades, and simultaneously, no amount they'll offer as an extension might be close to meeting Skubal's asking price.

More MLB: Mariners Prospect Retires From Pro Ball at Age 25

This article first appeared on Fastball on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: