Top Landing Spots for Free Agent David Bednar

Pitch Type	Statistic	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Curveball	Usage	29.5%	25.4%	20.4%	36.2%	18.2%
	OPS Against	.565	.542	.557	.445	.858
Splitter	Usage	16.9%	16.6%	24.0%	19.7%	41.2%
	OPS Against	.439	.737	.585	.388	.353

When Bednar’s curveball became less effective in 2026, he became part of the splitter revolution taking over MLB. What makes his splitter unique is its velocity range, with Bednar varying from 88.0 mph to 96.6 mph. 

This high-velocity splitter has allowed Bednar to tunnel his offspeed more effectively off his fastball. This has created a guessing game for hitters, where they need to read the fastball at the top and bottom of the zone while also being prepared to read the splitter off of it, leading to uncomfortable at-bats. 

This tunneling is especially effective against lefties. The splitter dives hard away from left-handed hitters and has contributed to reverse splits for Bednar. In 2026, left-handed hitters had a .230 wOBA against him, while right-handed hitters had a .272.

Maintaining Success with Different Results

One aspect of Bednar’s 2026 that may raise questions is his decrease in K/9. 

Bednar posted a 9.87 K/9, his lowest since 2024, when he struggled to a 5.77 ERA and 4.87 xFIP. This could be because Bednar was using his splitter more in 2026, rather than a loss in strikeout ability, as his groundball rate was a career-best 51.4%. 

Teams looking to sign Bednar should focus on optimizing his fastball-splitter combo to get outs, rather than honing in on his strikeout rate. It would be worth watching if he alters his usage between curveball and splitter again this year to find a balance between strikeouts and groundballs. 

Regardless, Bednar has shown, at 32 years old, the ability to consistently get whiffs and miss barrels, as well as having a strong track record of closing games. Bednar has been a mainstay in the back end of bullpens for years, and this offseason should allow him to have multiple suitors. 

Free Agent Profile

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2026 Stats: 64 games, 69.1 IP, 2.47 ERA, 35 SV, 9.87 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 2.61 FIP, 1.9 fWAR
• 2025 Salary: $9 million

Contract Projection

• Contract Length Expectation: 2-3 years
• Expected AAV: $15-18 million

Free Agent Landing Spots for David Bednar

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees sit as an obvious fit for David Bednar. The Yankees acquired Bednar at the 2025 trade deadline, and he became a major piece of their bullpen. Much of the Yankees’ success in 2026 centered on their bullpen, which finished the season with a 3.13 ERA, best in MLB. 

However, many of the pieces that were vital to this success, including Bednar, are free agents: Paul Blackburn, Tim Hill, John Schreiber, Michael Fulmer, and Ryan Yarbrough. It would make sense for the Yankees to pursue Bednar on a three-year deal to secure the back end of their bullpen. 

An important factor is that Bednar has already proven he is able to close effectively in New York and adapt his pitching repertoire to sustain his success. Yankee Stadium produces 18% more home runs than the average ballpark, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, but Bednar pitched to a career-best groundball rate of 51% in 2026. 

In comparison, the Yankees tried a similar transaction when they traded for Devin Williams, but he fell victim to the fly ball damage that comes in Yankee Stadium. Bednar’s track record and ability to adjust should give the Yankees confidence in handing out a multi-year deal to a reliever. 

Toronto Blue Jays

If Bednar wants to stay in the AL East, the Blue Jays are another logical fit. 

The Blue Jays’ pitching and coaching staff have focused on using the splitter with many of their starters and relievers and have seen good results. Many Blue Jays arms featured a high splitter usage rate in 2026, according to FanGraphs: 

Pitcher	Kevin Gausman	Trey Yesavage	Yariel Rodríguez	Jeff Hoffman	José Soriano	David Bednar
2026 Splitter Usage	39.2%	29.0%	24.4%	19.8%	18.8%	41.2%

The Blue Jays could target Bednar and his splitter to make their bullpen a dominant part of their team going into 2027. As for Bednar, signing with Toronto could help him improve an area of strength and become an elite strikeout pitcher.

With Louis Varland already the Blue Jays’ established closer, Bednar would have to settle into a setup role with occasional save opportunities. He does have experience in a setup role from some rough months with the Pirates in late 2024 and early 2025. 

Toronto could look to prioritize a left-handed reliever. Still, Bednar is very effective against lefties – his splitter tunnels well off his fastball before diving down and away to left-handed hitters. 

The Jays are keeping many pieces of their 2026 bullpen. Whether or not they target Bednar will be a question of whether they want to further invest in the fourth-best bullpen in 2026. Regardless, the Blue Jays have more financial flexibility heading into 2027, with George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal officially off the books. 

Detroit Tigers

Alternatively, if Bednar is looking to fill the closer role, the Detroit Tigers could look his way. The Tigers were a major disappointment in 2026, and there were many reasons for that. However, Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen combined for -0.5 fWAR, which did not help. 

The Tigers also lost Will Vest and Beau Brieske to injury, which contributed to them losing 18 games after leading through six innings. The Tigers need a shutdown arm late in games, and Bednar would fit the role perfectly. 

In addition, Will Vest is also projected to be out until mid-2027 with a stress fracture in his elbow and additional hip surgery. Adding Bednar would shore up a hole in their bullpen and provide additional insurance for Vest’s injuries.

Detroit has some of the most money coming off the books going into 2027. Former Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is expected to sign the largest free agent starting pitcher contract in MLB history, and the Tigers declined Jansen’s $12 million club option. 

Clearly, with a young offensive core headlined by Kevin McGonigle, many still view the Tigers as a contender in 2027. Signing Bednar would add momentum to their 2027 outlook.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are a team to watch this offseason. After multiple disappointing postseason exits, and with an aging roster and many large contracts taking up their payroll, many expect some roster shakeup. 

Matt Gelb of The Athletic has already reported that the Phillies plan to find a high-leverage setup man for Jhoan Duran, with the focus being on a left-handed reliever. 

The Phillies’ big three of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Jesús Luzardo averaged 6.08 innings per game started (MLB average: 5.1). Targeting a strong setup man makes sense to shorten the game as much as possible once their starters exit. 

If the Phillies strike out on the Adrian Morejon sweepstakes, they could target Bednar and his reverse splits to bridge the gap to Duran. Lefties had a .505 OPS against Bednar in 2026, while righties had a .636 OPS. 

As with the Blue Jays, Bednar would have to opt for a setup role with the Phillies. Yet, a one-two punch of Bednar and Duran would provide the Phillies bullpen a look they haven’t had in years. The 2026 Phillies bullpen ranked 22nd in MLB with a 4.38 ERA. The Phillies had to fight through struggles by José Alvarado, the demotion of Orion Kerkering, and an injury to Brad Keller. 

Dave Dombrowski has always been aggressive, and Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper aren’t getting any younger. The Phillies could make some moves to overhaul their bullpen and could start by signing an elite arm like Bednar. 

Chicago Cubs

Like the Tigers, the Chicago Cubs have money to spend with several contracts getting off their books. Their key free agents include Seiya Suzuki (qualifying offer extended), Ian Happ, Tyrone Taylor, Carson Kelly, and Shota Imanaga.

The sell for Bednar to the Cubs is simple: The Cubs have multiple holes in the bullpen. 

In 2026, the Cubs’ bullpen ranked 13th in MLB with a 3.93 ERA. Despite this, they need to fill 135 innings, with key contributors Caleb Thielbar (50.0 IP), Trent Thornton (48.1 IP), and Aaron Civale (36.2 IP) reaching free agency.

Since 2021, Bednar has averaged 61.2 innings per year. Bednar would also provide the Cubs with a reliable closer to pair with setup man Daniel Palencia. 

The Cubs will have to address a couple of areas this offseason. With the expected December 1 lockout shortening the offseason, the Cubs’ initial focus may be on retaining Seiya Suzuki or swinging big on Tarik Skubal. In other words, the Cubs may prioritize other free agents to help their 2027 before looking toward the bullpen and Bednar. 

Seattle Mariners

If the Seattle Mariners want to add to their bullpen, they could look to sign Bednar and form an elite bullpen trio with Andrés Muñoz and Gabe Speier.

Beyond that, Bednar’s increase in groundball rate could fit in well in Seattle. Bednar’s groundball rate was about 8 percentage points higher than MLB average in 2026, meaning he was very effective at limiting lift on hard contact. 

If his groundball rate remains above average, he could benefit from pitching in Seattle; T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly in the league, according to Baseball Savant. Any hard contact in the air would cause the ball to carry less in Seattle, reducing extra-base hits when hitters do lift the ball against Bednar. 

His plus stuff allows him to not only get whiffs but also miss barrels. Bednar and the Mariners could use this in Seattle’s pitcher’s park to help mitigate his decrease in K/9. 

Like the Phillies, the Mariners could look to Bednar to shorten games for their strong starting rotation as well. The Mariners’ rotation averaged 5.71 IP per game started in 2026 and should continue to pitch well in 2027 thanks to their glut of arms in George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, and Kade Anderson (Just Baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect).

However, the elephant in the room is that if the Mariners were to sign Bednar, it would buck their franchise free agent history. Their largest free agent reliever signing since 2015 was Juan Nicasio for two years and $17 million in 2017.