
After eight memorable seasons in Houston, Framber Valdez is set to hit the open market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old lefty made 166 starts for the Astros, pitching to the tune of a 3.36 ERA and 3.51 FIP while finishing top 10 in Cy Young voting three times.
We all know what Valdez has to offer. Any non-Astros fans reading this have sat through the southpaw dominating your favorite teams’ lineups at least once.
Valdez has turned into one of the more consistent arms in baseball, pitching at least 175 innings in each of the past four seasons, all with an ERA in the mid-3.00s or lower. Although he has the stuff to strike batters out, Valdez has relied on an elite groundball rate to limit damage and baserunners, which should age well for his next contract.
However, I do not think that contract will come from Houston. The Astros have money tied up in a few players who are aging, and while I do think they will continue to invest in the team, I don’t get the feeling Valdez will be that investment. Extend the qualifying offer, collect the draft pick, and add from the outside.
This is not me saying Valdez would not be worth the investment. I think he’s going to be a great add and one of the top free agents on my personal list. Lefties with high-level talent, playoff experience, and durability are always going to cash in.
Because Valdez will be entering his age-32 season, his contract length demands shouldn’t scare off potential suitors. As we all know, pitchers and injuries are a common match, so a shorter (relatively speaking) deal is going to be attractive for more organizations.
Despite being older than many other top arms, Valdez is still going to land ace money. The league continues to show each offseason that the cost of starting pitching increases time and time again, and I doubt it will be any different this winter.
Because of his expected contract demands and the likelihood of Valdez preferring a contender, you can eliminate a large chunk of the league as possible destinations. I’m also going to eliminate Houston for the reason I previously explained. The savings to spread across the team will be attractive, while the compensation pick is also desperately needed for Houston’s weak farm system.
Another incredible start by Framber Valdez today:
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 13, 2025
6 IP
4 H
0 ER
0 BB
10 K
The Astros have now won TWELVE straight games that he has started pic.twitter.com/WztOtWpCQc
To be safe, you might as well put the Mets as a landing spot for any big free agent. We all know the team is not afraid to throw around serious money and make a major push. After signing Juan Soto last offseason, I think they turn their attention to a rotation that underwhelmed.
Rumors have linked them to a possible Tarik Skubal addition, but signing Valdez would allow them to keep their top prospects while also ensuring a top-flight arm for more than one guaranteed season.
New York has talent in the rotation but lacks the anchor that Valdez would become. The addition could move Sean Manaea into a swing role, which he has performed well in, while also not putting so much pressure on Kodai Senga to throw 150+ innings. Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat can also structure their innings limits to avoid shutdown. Or, they become trade pieces.
I see this as the perfect fit. The Mets get the ace they need, and Valdez has an opportunity to pitch for a true contender. Well, assuming the Mets don’t blow it again late in the season.
Toronto went from being the team that kept missing on big free agents to the World Series in a short amount of time. To their credit, instead of overreacting to their 74-win 2024 season and trading off pieces, the Blue Jays held tight, and it paid off.
I see no reason why they wouldn’t continue to pour resources into this team. Bo Bichette will be a major question they need to address, and I’m not sure if that’s the first domino to fall or not. Either way, the rotation is going to need help.
Shane Bieber has an option, while Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt are free agents. The rise of Trey Yesavage has been exhilarating and needed, but a need is still there, especially with Gausman having only one year left.
Valdez would give the Blue Jays the lefty starter they have been lacking. A statement signing that shows fans they aren’t settling for one magical year but instead are building toward a dynasty.
Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Jung Hoo Lee have been major offensive additions over the past couple of seasons. Now, it’s time to shift the focus toward the rotation. The Giants still have Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, but outside of those veterans, the picture becomes cloudy.
Landen Roupp had a promising 2025, while Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, and a few other young arms showed promise. But, I don’t think we have seen any indication that Buster Posey will want to patiently wait and see which young arms develop. He’s shown aggressiveness and a willingness to take a risk, and I think Valdez could be his next big move.
Adding Valdez on a four or five-year deal would help the transition as Ray’s contract ends and the eventual next deal for Webb comes around. The Giants would have a top three that is more steady than they have had in years past.
Why would you invest this much into the offense only to roll the dice on the rotation? Doesn’t make sense, right? That’s exactly why a splash move like Valdez is a great possibility.
If someone asked me what I thought about the Rangers, I’m not exactly sure how I would respond. Yes, they recently won a World Series, but several key contributors are at or near their decline years and are also often injured. They’re a good team, but they have some work to become a great team.
The money they have invested in recent years showed fans how serious they were about building a winner, and they did just that. Now they will have to prove their willingness to continue investing in the team.
Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are both still pitching at high levels, but at 37 and 35 years old, you have to wonder how much longer they will be productive. A rotation of deGrom, Valdez, Eovaldi, Leiter, and Rocker/other would make the Rangers a true threat in the American League.
I’m not worried about the money or term for Texas. They have shown a willingness to give out big deals, even to pitchers who are past 30. There is no obvious hold-up from the organization on this type of deal, which gives them a higher chance to sign Valdez.
I guess the Braves are the closest thing to a surprise to appear on the list. Although, they really shouldn’t be.
Assuming Chris Sale’s $18 million option is picked up, the Braves would have Sale, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Reynaldo López as rotation options. While I like the collection of talent, Sale will be in his final year, Strider has had a few injuries, López I prefer in the bullpen, and the rest are not established enough to leave no worries.
Signing Valdez would allow for a high-end veteran to pair with Strider after Sale moves on or retires. Smith-Shawver, who will be recovering from Tommy John, can work his way back slowly, leaving Waldrep, Schwellenbach, Holmes or another arm to round out the rotation without much pressure to have to be the answer as a top-three option.
The idea with this move is to create depth with high-end arms that have options. Each is going to get plenty of starts as other injuries come up, and like always, logjams tend to work themselves out.
Atlanta needs a jolt. They have not made too many aggressive moves recently, and the team needs something more substantial than we saw last offseason. Valdez would be a great fit now and into the future.
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