Top Landing Spots For Free Agent Luis Arráez

In an era of baseball where batting averages is valued at an all-time low, three-time batting champion Luis Arráez finds himself on the open market for the first time in his career.

Unfortunately, he has been trending in the wrong direction the last two seasons, 2025 being his worst statistical year. Despite leading the National League in hits, he finished with 0.9 fWAR and a career low in OPS+ (99).

The conflicting numbers are where the dilemma lies for Arráez. There is real-world value in his ability to put the bat to the ball; however, the advanced analytics are not kind to him.

If you take a look at his Baseball Savant page, there are plenty of reasons to raise an eyebrow. This past season, there were career lows in xBA (.286), hard-hit rate (16.7%), average exit velocity (84.7 mph), and bat speed (62.6 mph). However, this is somewhat evened out by the fact that he ranks in the 100th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate.

The other fold is that he doesn’t walk. This season, there was a 35-point difference between his batting average and his on-base percentage, 28 last season. So if he isn’t leading all of baseball in average, he isn’t going to find any other way of getting on base.

None of this is to say that Arráez is a bad player or that he isn’t worth paying. It is more to illustrate how perplexing a player he is and how difficult it is to put a dollar amount on him. He is a unicorn that is every old-school baseball player’s idol, but every sabermetric nerd’s worst nightmare.

Free Agent Profile: Luis Arráez

• Age in 2026: 29
• 2025 Stats: 154 G, .292/.327/.392, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 104 wRC+, 0.9 fWar
• 2025 Salary: $14 million
• Qualifying Offer Eligible: None

Contract Projection

• Contract Length Expectation: 1-3 years
• Expected AAV: $8-12 million

At this point, clubs know that he is a valuable asset, but they must weigh that against the sharp decline in the underlying metrics. If this were two years ago, he may have been looking at a much larger contract, but now he will have to settle for a prove-it deal. 

Another way to look at it: how many hitters in today’s game even have a realistic floor of a .292 batting average? That baseline alone puts him in a tier almost nobody reaches anymore. And there is a chance he ascends back to the upper echelon of elite hitters, leaving a chance for a team to buy low.

His positional versatility will bode well for him and will give teams multiple ways to fit him into the lineup. However, the broader implication of his free agency will signal how modern front offices continue to value (or devalue) hitters who excel in counting stats but lag in advanced analytics.

It will be fascinating to see what kind of deal he lands when the stove gets hot.

Free Agent Landing Spots for Luis Arráez