Torey Lovullo Answers Burning 9th Inning Question

On Friday night the Arizona Diamondbacks fell a hit short of mounting yet another miraculous comeback. Down 9-5 to the Miami Marlins heading to the bottom of the ninth, the D-backs loaded the bases with nobody out before Geraldo Perdomo drew a walk to close the gap to 9-6.

Following a Ketel Marte strikeout, Pavin Smith ripped a base hit to right center, scoring two runs to make the score 9-8 and moving Perdomo up to third base. Manager Torey Lovullo sent in Blaze Alexander to run for Smith, but Alexander never made it past first base and Perdomo never scored the tying run.

Tima Tawa saw four straight sweepers down and away. He swung and missed at the first two and took one for a ball. The fourth straight sweeper was just below the zone, too close to take with two strikes. Unfortunately Tawa hit a ground ball to second baseman Xavier Edwards, who started a game-ending 4-6-3 double play.

During Saturday's pregame press conference, I asked Lovullo why he didn't send Alexander in that situation. Lovullo patiently gave detailed and nuanced answers, illustrating once again that baseball at the highest level is a multi-faceted, fast-paced game with many factors most fans watching at home might not consider.

His initial comments talked about the "throw through" play on a stolen base attempt with runners on first and third.

"I wanted to see where their defense was. I wanted to see what they were looking like. I felt very strongly they were not throwing through and we were going to try to steal that base. We just were looking for a little bit more time to read that situation. We were probably a pitch away from sending him," Lovullo said.

From these comments then we learn that he believed that the Marlins would likely cut the ball off in front of second base and try to catch the runner on third going home. He was still trying to get a read as the at-bat went on. From there Lovullo weighed the other factors to consider in the moment.

"At that point, once there's total sellout into making that decision, you're running a risk of a lineout double play. There's a lot that goes into it. The 1% chance they're throwing through and Blaze doesn't get a good jump and he gets thrown out at second base. But we felt very strongly we were a pitch away from sending him and getting him to second base is the go-ahead run."

The next question was with regard to whether he considered sending him as part of a hit-and-run. Again Lovullo gave a detailed and nuanced answer that referenced the situation and the pitcher's "kick time", or time to home plate. Essentially the actual times to the plate the pitcher was showing were faster than the initial scouting report.

"Maybe in a 3-2 count with the right hitter, I definitely would have done that and pushed him. But, you know, if there's swing-and-miss at home plate, there's a risk there. [Tawa swung and missed at the first two pitches]

"We had information that the pitcher could flash up to 1.55, but he was sitting at 1.22, 1.23 with his kick time. So they were countering."

The final piece of this puzzle was whether or not Lovullo considered a bunt play such as a safety squeeze. Here again the thought process behind that decision not to bunt is layered and nuanced. Tawa has been struggling, and was unlikely to see a goo pitch to bunt.

"The first pitch, I know there was a down slider that he swung at, so I was evaluating things. I just felt like the way Timmy's been swinging the bat, they were going to evacuate the zone, and he might not get a strike or get him to be able to execute on a pitch that was going to be in the zone.

"Those are just my own personal evaluations. I know that Timmy's been struggling a little bit, and they probably felt like, let's bounce some sliders in the left-handed batter's box, and that's a hard pitch to bunt. I don't want to waste that chance."

One can see on the Gameday strike zone plot that there were not any good pitches to bunt in that situation, so Lovullo's evaluation not to bunt was correct.