Trade Deadline Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

After consecutive fourth place finishes in the AL East, the Rays are back to their old ways. They’ve exceeded outside expectations and not only find themselves atop the division, they’re approaching July with the best record in the American League.

The Rays are coming off a sweep of the Diamondbacks and have the sport’s longest active winning streak at five games. That paired with the Yankees getting swept over four games in Boston over the weekend has pushed Tampa Bay back atop the division by a game and a half. It’d take a massive collapse for them not to make the playoffs, but there’s a significant advantage to winning the division. The AL East champion will almost certainly have one of the two best records in the league and get the accompanying first-round bye.

Tampa Bay rarely operates within a strict buyer/seller framework. Similarly to the Brewers and Guardians, they’re in a constant state of roster churn to avoid an extended rebuild despite their payroll limitations. They traded away Brandon Lowe, arguably the best offensive second baseman in the game, just a few months ago. The long-term payroll outlook is clean and they again have one of the league’s deepest farm systems. That should position them to add MLB talent and try to take advantage of what’s shaping up to be a weak playoff field in the American League.

Record: 48-33 (93.8% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: High-leverage relief, outfield, second base, back-end starter, catcher

The Rays have an atypical number of weaknesses for a team sitting atop the league standings. The lineup has been carried by three excellent hitters in Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda. The back half of the lineup has not been nearly as productive despite their general ability to put balls in play.

Bullpen

That leaves some obvious areas for upgrade in the lineup, but the pitching staff is probably the bigger concern. Tampa Bay has leaned heavily on a bullpen that has felt the absence of high-leverage arms Manuel Rodríguez and Edwin Uceta. Both righties have been out all season — Rodríguez recovering from last summer’s elbow surgery, Uceta due to a couple shoulder injuries. They might be back later in the season but seem unlikely to be ready before the August 3 trade deadline.

The Rays have gotten excellent work from closer Bryan Baker. Grounder specialist Kevin Kelly has pitched his way into leverage spots with a career year. Garrett Cleavinger is one of the more talented left-handed relievers in the sport, but he’s walking more batters and getting far less swing and miss than he did a year ago. Cam Booser has pitched well in a tiny sample as their second lefty after a dominant couple months in Triple-A. How confident are the Rays that this is a new level for a 34-year-old whom they added on a minor league deal?

There are the makings of a very good bullpen in here already — if Cleavinger gets on track, Booser keeps pitching well, and Uceta/Rodríguez come back at their usual levels. That’s a lot of hypotheticals. They’re currently carrying each of Craig Kimbrel, Cole Sulser and Casey Legumina in the middle innings. Tampa relievers are 22nd in ERA and have allowed the second-highest home run rate.

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Tampa Bay should be in the mix for a leverage arm who can bridge the gap to Baker in the ninth. It’d be a little surprising if they took on a heftier salary for Jeff Hoffman, Luke Weaver or Antonio Senzatela. Players like Anthony Bender, JoJo Romero, Huascar Brazobán, John Schreiber or Caleb Kilian could be targets. The Rays and Orioles lined up on the Baker trade last summer; could they do the same with 32-year-old Yennier Cano, who is under arbitration control for the next two and a half seasons?

Rotation Depth

Adding a depth starter would also help out the relief corps. They’ve already built Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour up as starters after losing Ryan Pepiot for the season. A starting five of Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Shane McClanahan, Jax and Seymour isn’t bad. There’s not much behind them with Steven Matz struggling and top prospect Brody Hopkins unable to throw strikes in Triple-A.

McClanahan and Martinez have struggled of late. Neither is in jeopardy of losing their rotation spot, yet the former will have workload questions after missing the last two seasons due to elbow injuries. Adding an extra starter feels necessary.

The Rays probably will kick the tires on Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Freddy Peralta. It’d be a surprise if they came away with Skubal, but they reportedly made a huge offer (Caminero and Carson Williams) for Shohei Ohtani in 2023. The Rays at least lurk on the periphery for star talent. It’s doubtful they’d surrender top prospect Theo Gillen for a couple months of Skubal, but they have the farm depth to put together a compelling package.

Other starters who could move include Trevor Rogers, Dustin May, Kris Bubic, Kevin Gausman and Foster Griffin. Old friend Jeffrey Springs has struggled with Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park but has been a viable back-end starter on the road.

Lineup

There are lots of areas the Rays could upgrade on the position player side. They’re set at the corner infield and designated hitter. Everything else is a potential target. They’re in the bottom third of MLB in offensive production out of both middle infield spots, catcher, and two outfield positions (left and center).

Second base is probably the biggest concern. Tampa Bay acquired Gavin Lux to play there and has gotten nothing from him so far because of ankle and shoulder injuries. Lux began a rehab assignment today and could be back around the All-Star Break. Even if that’s the case, he has been a low-end regular in his career. A Richie Palacios/Ben Williamson platoon hasn’t gotten the job done.

The Rays are probably the cleanest fit for Luis Arraez, whom the Giants have helped play Gold Glove caliber defense. There aren’t too many other obvious trade candidates at the position. Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Willi Castro are veteran utility types who’d be upgrades over what the Rays have gotten so far. Michael Massey has been on a nice run for the Royals over the past few weeks and could be available for a couple mid-level prospects.

Tampa Bay should be involved on CJ Abrams if the Nationals make him available. He’d go against their organizational emphasis on defense but would be a significant upgrade in the upper half of the lineup. He could either slot in at shortstop or move to second base if the Rays want to keep Taylor Walls at shortstop. Washington is within a couple games of a Wild Card spot but remains highly unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Their biggest question is whether to trade Abrams, who is down to two and a half seasons of arbitration control.

The Rays love Walls’ glove and have been willing to live with some ugly offensive results over the years. His bat has picked up a little bit over the past couple months. Walls obviously wouldn’t stand in the way if an impact shortstop (e.g. Zach Neto, Jeremy Peña) surprisingly came available. On paper, it looks like a thin trade market at that position. The Cubs’ Matt Shaw could be available and would upgrade either middle infield spot, but Chicago would probably only dangle him for starting pitching that the Rays don’t have in abundance.

There might be a few more possibilities in the outfield. They’re currently running with a group of Cedric Mullins, Victor Mesa Jr., Chandler Simpson, Ryan Vilade and Jonny DeLuca. The righty-hitting Vilade has done well in a tiny sample, but no one else is hitting.

Simpson is one of the sport’s best runners and an elite defender in left, but he has a punchless .269/.306/.319 line. Mullins has picked things up after a dreadful April. Jacob Melton, the centerpiece of their return in the Lowe/Mason Montgomery trade, just returned from an injured list stint in Triple-A. He could make his team debut in the coming weeks.

There are things to like about the entire group, but they’re simply not getting enough overall offense from their outfielders. Only the Marlins have a worse slash line than the .243/.298/.364 mark that Rays’ outfielders have mustered in more than 1000 plate appearances. They’re a top 10 group defensively, and the Rays won’t want to fully sacrifice that identity, but this is an area where they can add a bat.

Taylor Ward, Jake McCarthy, Trevor Larnach, Lars Nootbaar or JJ Bleday are potential targets. The Rays have been much better against right-handed pitching than lefties, but they probably don’t need another short side platoon type like Lane Thomas or Rob Refsnyder. Vilade and DeLuca can fill that role. They need a true everyday player somewhere while playing matchups with the two other positions.

Tampa Bay also seems to be perpetually in the catching market. They’ve never invested a ton at the position but should poke around for upgrades on the Nick Fortes – Hunter Feduccia pairing. Neither brings a whole lot to the table offensively, while Fortes has unexpectedly poor receiving grades this season. They both have an option remaining and profile better as #2 catchers. This probably isn’t top priority, but the Rays would make sense for Ryan Jeffers or Hunter Goodman if they hit the market.

Potential Trade Chips

While the Rays are flexible enough to consider everything, it’d be a real surprise if they traded any of their veteran starters. Drew Rasmussen has already escalated the value of next year’s club option to $10.25MM and would push that to $20MM if he stays healthy all season. He’s pitching well enough that an offseason trade would make sense given the Rays’ payroll limitations, but a midseason deal would be a very tough sell when the AL field is this wide open. Trading Nick Martinez wouldn’t be as big a hit to the roster but seems unlikely to return enough to be worthwhile.

There aren’t many other obvious trade candidates off the big league roster. Teams could call on Cleavinger, who’s making $2.4MM and under arbitration control for another season. If the Rays are especially confident in Booser, maybe there’s a swap involving Cleavinger for an outfielder. They should mostly be focused on dealing from the farm system, though.

Aside from Gillen, everyone in the system should be on the table in certain circumstances. They have a couple of high-end catching prospects in Caden Bodine and Nathan Flewelling, though their organizational drought at the position might lead them to hold both players. Brody Hopkins still has huge stuff but has no semblance of command, while 23-year-old shortstop Carson Williams continues to struggle with strikeouts in Triple-A. Neither player has the same trade value they would have had a year ago, but the Rays could dangle either if they’re worried about them falling further and completely tanking their respective stocks.

Payroll Outlook

Tampa Bay has an estimated player payroll just shy of $96MM, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen. That’s up around $14MM from where they ended last season. The long-term books are wide open, as Matz’s $7.5MM salary and a handful of option buyouts are their only guaranteed commitments for 2027. They’re not expected to wildly change their spending habits under new owner Patrick Zalupski and probably aren’t taking on any huge contracts, yet they should have ample flexibility to make some mid-tier additions to the payroll.

Organizational Overview

Even if Tampa Bay isn’t firmly in win-now mode, they’re not going to have many clearer paths to getting through the American League. The farm depth, clean payroll sheet, and various areas for upgrade make this an exciting and unpredictable deadline for the front office and fanbase.