Trio of players are closing in on vesting option provisions

The upcoming free agent class doesn’t feature a ton of players whose contracts contain vesting options. Marcus Stroman’s deal with the Yankees would’ve contained an $18M player option had he reached 140 innings, but an early-season knee injury made that impossible. The Yanks released him earlier this month anyhow.

While Stroman’s option was a non-factor, a trio of players are closing in on their own vesting provisions.

• Lucas Giolito, Red Sox RHP ($14M club option converts to $19M mutual option at 140 innings; $1.5M buyout in either case)

Giolito is up to 106 2/3 innings across 19 starts. He needs another 33 1/3 frames to convert next season’s $14M team option into a $19M mutual provision. That’d allow him to decline his end and retest free agency as he heads into his age-31 campaign. He’d very likely do so and could command a three-plus year contract.

The righty’s season numbers aren’t exceptional. Giolito carries a 3.63 earned run average with a 19.6% strikeout percentage that is his lowest since his terrible 2018 campaign. He had a trio of blowups in his first seven appearances after missing all of last season to an internal brace surgery. He has been locked in over the past two-plus months. In his last 12 starts, Giolito carries a 2.34 ERA while averaging over six innings per appearance. His 20.4% strikeout rate still isn’t great, and he has benefitted from a .229 opponents average on balls in play, but he at least looks the part of a durable mid-rotation arm again.

Giolito has a good shot to reach 140 innings. He’d need to average a little under six innings per start over his next six appearances. If he stays healthy, he should take the ball at least seven times — which would give him leeway in case he has one bad outing in which he’s knocked out after two or three frames. Even a minimal injured list stint would take it off the table, though.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said over the weekend that the Sox had no intention of changing Giolito’s workload to keep him from vesting the option. No front office executive would publicly admit otherwise, of course, but there’s no reason to doubt Breslow in this case. The Red Sox are trying to secure a postseason berth. Even if they were out of contention, limiting a player’s workload so they could exercise an option to keep that player at a below-market rate wouldn’t make for an especially good relationship. If he gets to free agency, Giolito could take aim at something like the three-year deals secured by Luis Severino ($67M with an opt-out after the second season) and Sean Manaea ($75M with deferrals).

• Jorge Polanco, Mariners DH/2B ($8M mutual option converts to $6M player option at 450 plate appearances, escalates to $8M player option at 550 plate appearances; $750K buyout in either case)*

Polanco re-signed with Seattle last offseason on a somewhat complicated deal that reflected his health uncertainty coming off left knee surgery. The deal contains an $8M mutual option which would vest into a $6M player provision if Polanco reaches 450 plate appearances. Polanco has taken 395 trips to the dish. He’s 55 plate appearances from reaching the vesting mark, and he’d escalate the player option price back to $8M if he tallies another 155 trips before season’s end.

Initially, the Mariners looked to have struck gold with that surprise re-signing. Polanco blasted nine home runs while hitting .384 through the end of April. Even with knee and side discomfort limiting him to early-season DH work, he looked rejuvenated. Polanco’s production completely tanked over the next two months, however. He had a huge July but is back to a .213/.275/.298 showing in 14 games this month.

Polanco has hit .209/.283/.344 across 315 plate appearances since the beginning of May. His season batting line (.245/.310/.439) is still above-average, but there have been significant peaks and valleys. Cole Young has taken over at second base. While Eugenio Suárez’s impending free agency leaves an opening at third base, Polanco hasn’t shown he’s healthy enough to play there regularly. There’s a good chance the Mariners would buy out their end of the option if it remains a mutual provision. Polanco only needs to start another 13 or 14 games to give himself more security.

That shouldn’t be a problem with 36 games remaining on the schedule. The M’s have sat him in each of their past two games against left-handed opponents, but he continues to play regularly versus righties. He’s highly unlikely to get all the way to 550 PA’s to push the player option to $8M, but he should easily unlock the $6M player option that’ll give him the unilateral decision whether to return to free agency.

* The vesting provision also requires that Polanco hasn’t suffered a lower body injury that’d prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2026.

• Matt Strahm, Phillies LHP ($5.5M team option becomes guaranteed at $7.5M at 60 innings)*

Strahm’s extension with the Phillies contained a $4.5M club option for the 2026 season. The southpaw has already pushed that to $5.5MM and will escalate it to $6.5M when he records two more outs. He’s 10 2/3 innings away from hitting the 60-inning threshold, at which point the price jumps to $7.5M and becomes guaranteed.

In his case, it’s probably immaterial. Even if Strahm suffers a minor injury that keeps him from getting to 60 frames, the Phillies would probably exercise the option. Strahm is having another impressive season, working to a 3.10 ERA with six saves and 14 holds. His velocity has dropped a tick and he has lost a few points on his strikeout rate, but he has still punched out an above-average 27.7% of opponents. Strahm is one of Rob Thomson’s more trusted setup arms.

* The vesting provision also requires that Strahm pass a postseason physical.