
Opening Day is just one week away, and the Baltimore Orioles enter the new season with high expectations once again.
After what was the most successful offseason in Baltimore in a long time, the team finally has the look of a real contender that can compete with the best in the American League. New veteran stars like Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Chris Bassitt have given this team a completely new sense of energy and life.
But if the Orioles want to take the next step and make a deep playoff run, it’s going to take players stepping up and emerging.
Looking at the Orioles’ roster, two players clearly stand out as breakout candidates, and The Athletic’s Keith Law agrees. In his list of breakout candidates for the 2026 season, Law included two Orioles among his picks and noted he’s bullish on Baltimore, in part because of the breakout potential of these two players.
Mayo’s case to break out this season is clear for a number of reasons. Once a top prospect in all of baseball, he dominated in the minor leagues but has lacked a real opportunity to get consistent playing time in the majors due to being blocked by other players and a series of nagging injuries. When he has gotten that opportunity, the results haven’t followed, reflected in his -0.3 fWAR at the major league level.
However, in spring training, Mayo has been the talk of Orioles camp thanks to the strong performance he’s put together, and he's slated to take over as the starting third baseman while Jordan Westburg recovers from a partial UCL tear in his right elbow.
Toward the end of last season, Mayo looked like he was beginning to break out. In September, he hit .301 with five home runs and a .941 OPS. He’s carried that momentum into the spring, going 14-for-29 (.483) with two home runs, including one in today’s action against Yankees ace Max Fried.
Coby Mayo hit a 2-run home run caps an 8-pitch at-bat vs. Max Fried in Tampa. Orioles lead Yankees 2-1 in 2nd.
— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) March 19, 2026
Statcast numbers: 404 feet, 110.3 mph exit velocity, 26-degree launch angle.
Mayo is hitting .483 (14-for-29) with 2 home runs in Grapefruit League play this spring.
Mayo’s small sample size of success can be attributed to a number of things, but one factor Law and other analysts have pointed to is him swinging the bat more often and being more aggressive at the plate. If Mayo does break out and Westburg returns, the Orioles will have an even more potent offense for opposing teams to deal with.
Baz is the other Orioles player who has all the makings to break out this season. Similar to Mayo, he was once a top prospect in baseball, with many viewing him as a future ace.
However, Baz’s career has been a tale of injuries so far, as he’s struggled to stay healthy until last season, when he made 31 starts. Even then, Baz struggled mightily, posting a 4.87 ERA and 0.4 bWAR. The Orioles traded for him believing the young right-hander still has the potential to be the frontline starter many once thought he could become.
.@keithlaw named Shane Baz as one of his breakout candidates this season for @TheAthleticMLB
— SleeperOrioles (@SleeperOrioles) March 19, 2026
"He has got the stuff, control and delivery to be a top-of-the-rotation starter."
Orioles rotation is going to shock people #Birdland pic.twitter.com/0xPIBpdldw
Law mentioned in his reasoning for choosing Baz as a breakout candidate that he struggled mightily pitching at George M. Steinbrenner Field, where he allowed 18 of his 26 home runs. Pitching in a new home at Camden Yards should be beneficial for the 26-year-old.
Baz has also added a two-seamer to his repertoire, continuing to build on a pitch mix that evolved with the addition of a kick change in 2025. With a full season now under his belt and a better feel for his pitches, Baz has the ability to take the Orioles’ rotation to the next level this season.
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