The Texas Rangers narrowly missed out on the playoffs for the second straight year. A team that was built on free agents and rental pitching, they had the best staff in baseball. Now, after wasting that pitching, they will begin to lose some arms in the upcoming free agent class.
Most notably, both Tyler Mahle and Merrill Kelly are set to hit the open market. Kelly was acquired in a trade at the deadline in 2025, and Mahle was brought in while hurt before the 2024 season.
Both right-handers were named top ten free agent starting pitchers by Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly. Mahle, who has been great while on the mound, hasn't been healthy in a couple of years, while Kelly had a decent season, but is nearing 40 years old.
Kelly, who turns 37 years old on Tuesday, will be an interesting case this season. The right-hander is coming off of a season in which he threw 184 innings, but finished the season with a 4.23 ERA in his last 10 starts.
He's not eligible for a qualifying offer, so he will hit the market; however, that could be the kind of deal Kelly gets. As an older pitcher, now might begin the portion of his career where he gets a short-term deal for a lot of AAV, like Justin Verlander got from San Francisco last offseason. A one year, $20 million would likely be in the range for Kelly.
"Not only would he help stabilize a rotation, but he's someone with a wealth of experience that would rub off positively on younger arms," Miller wrote.
2026 will be Kelly's eighth big league season, and he has thrown under 100 innings just twice in 2024 and 2020. He was injured in both seasons. The right-hander has thrown over 180 innings three times and reached the 200 mark in one of those years. He has been one of the most reliable and consistent innings eaters for a long time.
Mahle, on the other hand, is a completely different story. The 32-year-old is at the end of a two-year deal with the Rangers and had a great year, but he only pitched 19 games over the course of the contract.
The right-hander posted 2.1 bWAR and a 2.18 ERA in 86.2 innings in 2025. He was dominant, but it was only half of a season. Mahle hasn't thrown over 100 innings since 2022 when he threw 120.2, but ended the season on the injured list.
2021 was his best season, when he threw a career high 180 innings.
The case for a nice deal for Mahle will be interesting. Although he had a great year when he did pitch, he hasn't been available for a full season in a few years. It's hard for teams to justify paying a pitcher like that a lot of money.
However, there's a reason he's number eight in the top 10, according to Bleacher Report, and it's because it's just undeniable results when he's on the mound.
"If you sign him expecting 33 starts a year, you'll probably be disappointed. However, if you think he can make 23 starts a year at a really high level, there's certainly value to that," Miller wrote about Mahle.
How teams weigh those options when it comes to Mahle wil be one of the more interesting stories to follow in the free agent market.
The Rangers could absolutely bring in either free agent on a shorter deal, as well. Their rotation is set to take a step back without them, while Jacob deGrom is nearing 40 and Nathan Eovaldi is returning from a shoulder injury.
It will just be a matter of if they're able to make the money work, as they're a team with a lot of big contracts currently on the books.
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