Underlying Metrics Raise Questions About Rockies' Tomoyuki Sugano

Colorado Rockies pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano. Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Underlying Metrics Raise Questions About Rockies' Tomoyuki Sugano

Originally posted on Colorado Rockies on SI
By Seth Dowdle | Last updated May 7, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Tomoyuki Sugano didn’t have a great time throughout his first full season stateside in Major League Baseball with the Baltimore Orioles.

Not only was he allowed to hit free agency following a campaign that saw him allow the most home runs in the league, but he was picked up by a team, the Colorado Rockies, that notoriously doesn’t develop pitching very well. It should’ve been a death sentence. In reality, it’s been the exact opposite.

While Sugano’s performance through the early going of 2026 hasn’t uplifted the Rockies to the top of the NL West — far from it, actually — it has given the club a tiny bit of hope that pitchers can enter Coors Field and thrive.

Or does it?

On paper, Sugano’s 3.41 ERA over 37 innings is the shining beacon on the Rockies’ pitching staff. Take manager Warren Schaeffer’s word for it. After Sugano’s most recent impressive performance, which saw him throw five no-hit innings against the New York Mets, Schaeffer continuously praised the Japanese native during his postgame press conference.

“Tomo was fantastic tonight,” Schaeffer said per the Denver Post on X (formerly Twitter). “Super efficient ... did what he does and doing what he’s doing for us all year.”

The underlying numbers tell a different story, however.

Advanced Metrics Suggest Regression Could Eventually Arrive

Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Sugano currently sports a 4.95 FIP, which indicates that he might be overperforming. For those unfamiliar with FIP, the statistic — which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching — attempts to measure a pitcher’s performance based only on outcomes he can directly control, such as strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.

When a pitcher’s FIP is noticeably higher than their ERA — like Sugano’s — it can suggest that they’ve benefited from strong defense, favorable luck or timely outs, and that regression could potentially be on the horizon.

For the Rockies and Sugano, that’s not good news. His excellent outings have been a major buoy during the first month of the season. If those end, then the Rockies’ rotation, which has already struggled mightily at moments, could collapse. A familiar story, but one the team wants to avoid.

So, how can Sugano and company make sure that everything remains steady? That’s a difficult question to answer because it’s hard to forecast just how well he’s going to pitch in the future. According to the numbers, some regression might be arriving soon. After all, Sugano has already allowed six homers, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is lower than it was last year. It’s obvious that he’s gotten extremely lucky.

The vibes, however, say otherwise. Yes, the numbers indicate that he can’t keep this up. But Sugano is on a roll — why would anything stop him now? That’s the answer the Rockies hope arrives throughout the remainder of the season.

This article first appeared on Colorado Rockies on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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