Way too early MLB betting odds

New York is certainly a much better team with Judge — well, duh — but Judge can't do everything. Judge can't close out games or pitch in the later innings, and until New York tightens up its bullpen, and avoids those bleak offensive nights like they did in August, Houston is the team to put money on. 

Aroldis Chapman is pretty much a lock to pitch for any other team in 2023 other than the Yankees after being left off the ALDS roster due to missing a workout, but Chapman wasn't the only New York reliever who had his ups and downs in 2022. Clay Holmes was elite for the first half of the season, and then the second half came ... and poof, Holmes was far from himself. New York lost its faith in Holmes, and went out and acquired Lou Trivino from the A's right before the trade deadline. Holmes was definitely better in the second half once he got moved back to his set-up role, but certainly nowhere near as good as he was in the first half.

And don't forget about the Yankees' August woes. New York closed out August a pathetic 10-18, and really struggled to score runs, even with the AL single-season home run leader doing his thing. And re-signing Anthony Rizzo is certainly big for New York, but the Yankees still need to get more production from the shortstop position, and outside of Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes at the top of their rotation, the Yankees still need help rounding out their rotation, especially after losing Jameson Taillon to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Here's the bottom line. The Yankees are going to be in the mix every year to win the AL East and make a deep postseason run, but they've really struggled with Houston, and continuing to bet against the Astros is a bad idea until the Yankees actually beat them in the playoffs.

Houston Astros (+275 to win the AL Pennant; +550 to win the World Series)

No Verlander, no problem, right? Well, I wouldn't say that, but don't start betting against the Astros just because the Yankees and Red Sox have been busy so far during free agency. Losing the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner in Verlander is almost impossible to replace, but luckily for Houston, they have starting pitching depth, and maybe the best overall lineup in the AL. 

Framber Valdez set an MLB record with 25 straight quality starts this season, and even if Houston signs a big-name starting pitcher during free agency, Valdez should still be considered Houston's ace. Valdez definitively wasn't better than Verlander this season, but he wasn't that far off. The southpaw was consistent as heck — hence, quality starts record — and didn't allow more than two runs in each of his four postseason starts. Houston knows what it has in Valdez, and that's a fact. 

But Valdez is not the be all, end all with Houston. Cristian Javier is coming off a career year, and don't forget, he didn't allow a single run as a starter in the postseason. And he threw six no-hit innings in that Game 4 combined no-hitter in the World Series against the Phillies. Javier's confidence should be as high as ever, and should be slated in as Houston's No. 2 or No. 3 starter. And Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Uriquidy and Luis Garcia are more than capable back of the rotation guys, who have plenty of experience, and more importantly, World Series experience.

The one flaw Houston had entering the postseason, was its bullpen, but it shut that down quickly. The Houston bullpen was elite in the postseason, and it wasn't just one guy. The Houston bullpen finished with a 0.83 ERA in the postseason, and maybe more impressive, struck out 75 batters over 54.1 innings. Strikeouts are huge, especially with runners on base, and the Houston bullpen had no problem doing that in the postseason. 

And last but certainly not least, the Houston offense. Yordan Alvarez was arguably the best true DH in all of baseball in 2022 after slashing .306/.406/.613/1.019 in his first All-Star season. Let's face it, Alvarez was the catalyst for Houston offense, and don't be surprised if they're just as good, if not better next season, especially if they can re-sign Michael Brantley. Plus, Kyle Tucker is coming off back-to-back 30 home runs seasons, and Jeremy Pena is the reigning ALCS and World Series MVP. And don't forget about Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve ... you see, they just have so many good hitters. Houston has dominated the American League for a while now, and betting against them is just not smart ... even without Verlander.

Boston Red Sox (+1500 to win the AL Pennant; +3000 to win the World Series)

Boston has gone bonkers so far in MLB free agency, but hold your horses before putting any money on the Red Sox to win the World Series or AL Pennant, let alone the AL East. Boston had the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball, and second-highest in the AL, and well, they've addressed the bullpen so far this offseason. The Red Sox signed veteran closer Kenley Jensen on Wednesday and signed versatile relief pitcher Chris Martin last week. 

Don't get me wrong, those are two solid signings, but that doesn't put the Red Sox on the Yankees' or Astros' level. Nope, not even close. 

And even after signing Japanese superstar Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90-million deal on Wednesday, Boston still might be the worst team in the AL East. After all, every team in the AL East finished above .500 except Boston. 

Yoshida certainly has all the tools to be a star, but sometimes it takes time to make the adjustment from the Nippon League to MLB. Don't be so quick to assume Yoshida is going to start out hot to begin his MLB career. And even if he does perform well, Boston has had a hard time staying healthy, especially ace Chris Sale. The Red Sox are certainly headed in the right direction so far this offseason, but in arguably the best division in all of baseball, putting money on Boston to do anything in the postseason is super risky. 

Philadelphia Phillies (+600 to win the NL Pennant; +1300 to win the World Series)

We've touched on the American League, and now it's time to focus on the National League. The Phillies shocked the world after making it all the way to the World Series following a 21-29 start through the first two months of the season, and now they're looking to win the whole thing in 2023. Philadelphia signed shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300-million deal earlier in the week, and signed starting pitcher Taijuan Walker and reliever Matt Strahm to multi-year contracts on Wednesday.

The Phillies have a true ace in Zack Wheeler, and a solid No. 2 in Aaron Nola, but they desperately needed another starter, and Walker is a solid signing. And better yet, getting Walker from NL East rival New York makes it so much sweeter. The Phillies' offense was legit without Turner, and now it might just be the best in the NL. Turner can hit at the top of the order or in the middle, and is an above average shortstop defensively. Adding him to mix with guys like Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos takes the Phillies from a repeat playoff team, to a team that might just repeat as NL Champs. 

Rob Thompson did a better job than anyone could have expected after taking over for a fired Joe Girardi midway through the season, and Philly rewarded him with a multi-year contract. Thompson is clearly the man for the job, but it doesn't get easier. There is now an expectation to not just win games in the city of brotherly love, but to win meaningful games — i.e., games in October. 

Dave Dombrowski's aggressive offseason signings make it only more clear that the Phillies are going all in, and now we get to see how Philadelphia will respond without the underdog label in 2023. The bullpen had its issues at times, and Strahm certainly makes Philadelphia better than they were a year ago, but how much better is the question. Philly is a really good team, but with so many other good teams like the Dodgers, Padres, Braves and Mets, you might be best waiting till spring training before placing a bet on Philly to repeat as NL champs. 

New York Mets (+450 to win NL Pennant; +950 to win the World Series)

The Mets lost arguably the best pitcher in franchise history in Jacob deGrom to the Rangers, but they did go get a future first ballot Hall of Famer in Justin Verlander. Verlander might not be better than deGrom, but he certainly doesn't have deGrom's injury history, which is a huge bonus. DeGrom really struggled to stay on the mound, and to be honest, losing him isn't the end of the world. Verlander and Max Scherzer are still a formidable 1-2 combination at the top of the Mets' rotation, and Buck Showalter proved he was the right man for the job after winning NL Manager of the Year following a 101-win season.

Plus, the Mets have the best reliever in the NL in Edwin Diaz, and despite at times struggling defensively, the Mets strong pitching staff and OBP driven offense should be able to make up for whatever defensive deficiencies the Mets might have. In a stacked NL East, expect the Mets to be near the top of the division once again, and make a stronger playoff push in 2023. It's still early, but betting on the Mets to win the NL and World Series isn't a bad idea, especially considering the odds are likely to drop following other teams' signings this winter. 

Los Angeles Dodgers (+285 to win the NL Pennant; +600 to the World Series)

No spoiler here — don't put money on the Dodgers to win the World Series or the NL Pennant, let alone the NL West. Losing Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and Tyler Anderson is huge, and we're skeptical the Dodgers have what it takes to win the NL West. 

The Giants missed out on Judge, but don't be surprised if they make some noise in free agency. And yeah, we know San Francisco fell off big time in 2022 after winning 107 games and the NL West in 2021, but don't be shocked if they get back to their winning ways in 2023, especially if they can re-sign Carlos Rodon. The Giants need another bat, a big bat, and they're out there. As for the Dodgers, well, they just lost two in Turner and Bellinger. San Francisco isn't on LA's level yet, but they're not far behind.

But you know who is on LA's level? The Padres. San Diego very well could have won the World Series if Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't get suspended for testing positive for PED's; but with Tatis back for 2023, San Diego is going to be dangerous. San Diego went all in before the trade deadline by trading for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader, and after being together for half a season, this team is a legit World Series contender for 2023. 

Even if Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish aren't as good as they were a year ago, expect them to be solid, and at the top of an already deep starting rotation, this Padres team has very holes. But we're supposed to be talking about the Dodgers, right? Not the other teams in the NL West.

I get that, but it's hard to not talk about them. Clayton Kershaw is a first ballot Hall of Famer, but the left-hander will be 35, and unless he's on the Tom Brady regimen, 2023 might just be the year Father Time starts to creep up on him. And don't forget about all the issues LA had closing out games, especially when Craig Kimbrel was the team's closer. Getting Walker Buehler back next year will certainly help, but betting on the Dodgers is a bad idea — at least right now it is.