What Changes Have Caused Nationals Starter to Rapidly Lose Momentum?

The Washington Nationals have had a hit-or-miss start to the season, and it is heavily due to the fact that they are still working on developing their young talent, and supplementing it with veteran players to provide input and balance the lineup. The unfortunate part of this is that the rebuild is still somewhat in effect, and the team is not necessarily close to making a big Postseason run as of yet.

The good news is they have young talent to build around, especially in their pitching staff, as MacKenzie Gore has taken an enormous step forward, and Mitchell Parker is beginning to find his stride in recent games as well.

One of the more notable difficulties with the team has been remaining consistent, however, and maintaining a level of success from one season to another, both when it comes to individual players and overall team talent. A prime example of that has been starting pitcher Trevor Williams, who has gone from a very strong spot-starter in 2024 to a player struggling immensely with his control in 2025. While there is still undoubtedly talent there with Williams, some changes during the offseason have seen his production regress rather rapidly.

What Statistics Has Williams Been Falling Behind in This Season?

The most notable change from 2024 to 2025 is in regards to Williams' fastball, and specifically, how hard it is being hit. In 2024, opposing batters were only hitting .202 against his four-seam with a .279 SLG, but now in 2025, they are hitting .344 with a .549 SLG and four more home runs on nearly the same amount of pitches thrown. His uptick in utilization of this pitch is noticeable after three straight years of using it less and less, and while the pitch has a higher spin rate compared to prior years, according to Baseball Savant, the speed has dipped by over one mile per hour so far.

This is not a major issue in most cases, but Williams does not exactly induce a ton of break on his fastball, which has been the case for some time now. This year, the pitch has 2.5 inches less vertical movement than league average, and 4.5 inches less horizontal break than league average, which makes it extremely hittable when it comes in on average at 87.6 miles per hour.

Getting this fastball to either a lower rate of usage or at least finding an uptick in velocity could really help Williams in the long run, as it would open up his full arsenal of pitches. Doing so is going to require a pretty extensive package of changes to be made, though, and may take some time to adjust to for the 33-year-old.