What Could an Orioles Sell-Off Look Like?

The Baltimore Orioles have been Major League Baseball’s biggest disappointment in 2025.

After winning more than 90 games in each of the past two seasons, this year has taken a turn for the worst. The O’s are currently 19-34 with a run differential of -92 after Memorial Day.

The club has already moved on from its manager, Brandon Hyde. President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias is taking a lot of heat for the team’s ineptitude. He shouldered the blame for the team’s rough start in the team’s press release regarding Hyde’s firing.

A big way that he can salvage some productivity out of this season is by acquiring new, controllable talent at the trade deadline.

For a team that has three former number-one prospects all under team control for at least a few more years, Baltimore won’t be selling all of their assets. Instead, it’s most likely that they aim to salvage value on veterans with expiring contracts. Hopefully a re-tooling of the roster will get this team back to its winning ways.

This trade deadline is crucial for Elias. The future success of the franchise, as well as his job security, are riding on him finding new talent that leads to winning in 2026.

With that being said, let’s take a look at who could be on the move within the next couple of months to bring in new talent to the organization.

Most Likely: Veterans on Expiring Contracts

It would be a surprise to see the majority of these players in orange and black, if the season continues down this path. They all will be entering free agency at season’s end.

Cedric Mullins

Mullins, 30, is the longest-tenured Oriole on the roster. A former All-Star in 2021, he would be of interest to any team looking for outfield help.

Slashing .226/.320/.446 with ten home runs and a 121 wRC+, Mullins has been a productive hitter this season. His approach has shifted towards more of a three true outcome hitter as he has the highest walk rate (11.6%), strikeout rate (24.6%), and home run rate (5.6%) of his career.

Perennially a menace on the base paths, Mullins has stolen 30 or more bases in three of the past four seasons entering 2025.

His ability to make highlight-reel catches in center field is well-known, but defensive metrics are undecided on his overall defensive impact this season. Mullins grades as the worst center fielder in baseball with -9 defensive runs saved (DRS), but is above-average with 1 out above average (OAA).

Mullins’ departure would be a difficult one to swallow for Oriole fans. He weathered the team’s painful rebuild and got to partake in their winning ways. However, with Colton Cowser proving to be a capable center fielder and Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s blazing speed rising through the minors, it’s uncertain whether Elias would have had much interest in retaining Mullins, even if this season had gone well.

Ryan O’Hearn

O’Hearn, 31, has been the Orioles’ best hitter in 2025.

In 172 plate appearances this season, O’Hearn has slashed .340/.426/.542 with eight home runs, good for a 181 wRC+. He was largely thought of as a strong-side platoon bat entering the year, but has hit all pitching well. O’Hearn’s .999 OPS vs righties is outstanding, but his .827 OPS in left-on-left matchups is still very respectable.

He has been a revelation for this Orioles team since being designated for assignment by the Kansas City Royals in the offseason entering 2023.

Defensively, O’Hearn is largely a first baseman. He can play corner outfield occasionally, but is not a plus defender out there. However, that versatility is still valuable to a team with playoff aspirations.

It’s hard to quantify leadership, but O’Hearn seems to be the glue that holds this Orioles clubhouse together. If I’m Mike Elias, I’d explore a two or three year deal to keep this guy around and help the team’s young stars navigate the majors. For a first base-only projected defender, the contract probably wouldn’t even require a very large financial commitment.

However, it’s very possible that Elias could salvage maximum value out of O’Hearn in a trade by moving him at the deadline.

It’s not impossible for Baltimore to pursue O’Hearn in free agency this offseason after trading him, but one has to think he’d be less inclined to sign back on with a club that dealt him.

Regardless, by trading O’Hearn, there would be a massive void in the lineup and the clubhouse.

Zach Eflin

Eflin, 31, was acquired by the Orioles from the Tampa Bay Rays at last year’s trade deadline. Given that he’s an established major league starter, Eflin is sure to garner trade interest again this season.

After Eflin’s season got off to a great start, he has looked very hittable since returning from the injured list with a lat strain. His ERA ballooned to 5.40 because he served up seven home runs in his last two outings.

Eflin isn’t striking out batters at all (13.4%) but also limits walks to the same extreme (3.6%). He’s not an ace, but he would provide quality rotation depth to a contender and could pitch game three or four of a playoff series.

The Orioles hope that Eflin can find his groove again over the next couple of months to maximize his trade value.

Tomoyuki Sugano

Sugano, 35, was signed to a one-year, $13 million deal to come over from the NPB in Japan and try his hand in the major leagues. He has posted good results thus far.

This season, Sugano has a 3.07 ERA in 58.2 innings pitched. He has been the only source of consistency in a messy Orioles rotation mix.

Sugano works to keep hitters guessing but has below average velocity (92.6 mph fastball) and a very low strikeout rate (13.8%). He throws six different pitches at least 10% of the time, but his best pitch is the sweeper, per Stuff+.

The advanced metrics still aren’t sold that Sugano’s success is legit, as his 4.44 xFIP suggests. However, a different team may be inclined to take a chance on him at the deadline, now that there is a decent data sample for Sugano’s offerings against major league hitters.

The signing of Sugano has proven to be a success for Elias. He hopes Sugano will continue to contribute to the team in a positive way to boost his trade value.

Hard-Throwing Relievers: Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto

Dominguez, 30, and Soto, 30, were both acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies at last year’s trade deadline. They are intriguing arms with good velocity who are sure to intrigue teams looking to fortify their bullpen.

Dominguez has surrendered 12 earned runs in 18 innings this season, with a 20:13 K:BB ratio. He has experience in the closer role as recently as last season, when he earned 11 saves as an Oriole down the stretch. Dominguez has always had fantastic stuff (111 Stuff+ overall), but his command has held him back from being elite. The stuff alone will lead to teams wanting to take a chance on him.

Soto was an All-Star in 2021 with the Detroit Tigers and earned 48 saves between 2021-22. This season, he has allowed nine earned runs in 17.2 innings pitched, with an 18:7 K:BB ratio. Soto’s sinker and slider grade as above-average offerings, but he has surrendered a lot of hard contact. If he’s on, Soto can look untouchable.

Possible Trade Candidates: Players Controllable Beyond 2025

It is uncertain whether the Orioles would be motivated to move these players in a trade, given that they could still help the club in 2026.

Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle, 28, has been one of the Orioles’ biggest disappointments thus far. His .575 OPS, 63 wRC+, and -0.6 fWAR tell that story.

Despite the poor results, the underlying data indicates that Mountcastle has hope for a turnaround. He has elite bat speed and is hitting the ball hard at an above-average rate, while playing a good defensive first base. What has always held Mountcastle back from becoming a truly impact player is his lack of plate discipline.

Mountcastle has one more year of team control after the 2025 season. He has been an above-average hitter by wRC+ in every season prior to this one. Any team contending this year or rebuilding for next year could be interested in a buy-low opportunity for a decent first baseman.

The Orioles may be motivated to trade him because he was drafted by the previous front office regime and they have top prospect Coby Mayo waiting in Triple-A for a spot to open up. The most likely role that Mayo could fill on the major league club is Mountcastle’s.

It’s not a guarantee that he gets traded at the deadline, but I don’t see how Elias could go into 2026 with both Mountcastle and Mayo. Both first basemen hit right-handed.

Keegan Akin

Left-handed Akin, 30, is a valuable reliever. He, like Mountcastle, is a free agent after 2026.

This season, Akin has a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings with 28 strikeouts. He has a solid fastball-slider combo, with the ability to throw multiple innings.

It’s unlikely that Akin is one of the top-priority names for Elias to move, but he could be expendable. If a team comes looking for a left-handed reliever with team control, the O’s do have one to offer.

Andrew Kittredge

Kittredge, 35, signed a one-year deal with a $9 million club option for 2026 this past offseason. He has appeared in three games since missing the first month-and-a-half with a knee injury.

In 2024, Kittredge led all of baseball in holds with the St. Louis Cardinals. He has been an established major league reliever for years and gives the acquiring team flexibility with that club option.

Like with Akin, Elias could choose to keep Kittredge as a part of the 2026 team, or he could attempt to move him for a good return.

Heston Kjerstad

Kjerstad, 26, is a former top-100 prospect with five years of team control. Why would Elias consider trading his former number-two overall pick from the 2020 MLB Draft?

The Orioles have struggled to commit to playing Kjerstad consistently and because of that, he has not performed well. In 139 plate appearances, Kjerstad has slashed .195/.245/.316 with a 60 wRC+.

If Baltimore is looking to make a big splash for a controllable arm at the deadline, they will have to give up valuable pieces themselves. Kjerstad feels like someone who may fit that bill in Elias’ eyes, given that he has drafted outfielders in the first round in four of the past five drafts.

What Should the Orioles Be Looking For?

Young, controllable pitching in the major leagues or Triple-A.

Since it’s unlikely for the club to commit to a full sell-off and part with their most valuable assets, they probably won’t be getting the best pitcher available. Instead, it’s time for Elias to put his shrewd scouting abilities to the test and bring in some arms who can help the Orioles for 2026 and beyond.

Elias has completely ignored drafting pitching in the first three rounds, since he took over in 2019. The only pitcher that he has drafted in that range, Jackson Baumeister, was traded to the Rays in the Eflin deal.

If you want to ignore drafting pitching to develop valuable hitters, I understand. But, there comes a time where you have to go find young pitchers that you like that another team developed. Trading prospects for one-or-two year rentals is a difficult way to sustain winning.

The Orioles have traded prospects for Eflin, Corbin Burnes, and Jack Flaherty during Elias’ tenure. He has made moves for pitching. But surely, being the strong drafter that he is, there had to be pitchers that have ascended to the high minors who interested him, right? This team is devoid of pitching from Double-A and above because of Elias’ choices.

Now that the team is struggling and expiring assets will be sold, go get some of those young arms with a bit of upside.

3 Mock Trades That Would Bring Life to the Orioles Roster

1. Trade Cedric Mullins to Go For a Ring with the New York Mets

Orioles Trade: CF Cedric Mullins

Mets Trade: SP Tylor Megill (MLB), SP Blade Tidwell (AAA)

Cedric Mullins may be the most important trade chip that the Orioles have at this year’s deadline, simply because is going to be a rental. The return has the widest range of outcomes, depending on demand for his services.

First, Mullins has to hold up his end and finish off the next two months into the deadline strong. If he can hold his 121 wRC+ until the deadline, the Orioles can dangle a very attractive starting center fielder to contenders, and two in the NL East seem like the ideal fit.

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are currently in a tight race atop the NL East. Each team is primarily relying on defense-first options in center field and could use a bat to bolster their playoff lineups.

There is no world where the Phillies trade Andrew Painter for a rental. However, if they were to consider dangling Mick Abel, they could have the best arm on the table for the Orioles. If not, the Mets have enough depth to throw two arms the Orioles’ way, which could make a big difference in 2026.

Tylor Megill is in the midst of a breakout season, where he has pitched to a 3.56 ERA across 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 48 innings pitched. The 29-year-old could slot into the middle of the Orioles rotation and has two years of control after this season.

The Mets are awaiting the return of Frankie Montas, who just made his first rehab start, and Sean Manaea, who is supposed to be two weeks behind Montas. Those are the two highest-paid arms in the Mets’ rotation this season. Surely, they are going to resume spots once they are ready to return.

With the rest of the Mets rotation having pitched so well, Megill very well could be the odd-man out. He and David Peterson are the only starting pitchers who still have a minor league option available, and Peterson would be above Megill on the pecking order.

There is a world where the Mets could get this trade done with just Megill. However, they also have a deep farm system with plenty of talented arms to sweeten the pot.

Blade Tidwell checked in at No. 14 in our latest ranking of the Mets’ top prospects, and he made his MLB debut in a spot start earlier this season. He carries some reliever risk for sure, which is why the Mets would put him on the table.

This trade would offer both floor and ceiling with the two arms the Orioles would get back.

2. Who Needs Zach Eflin?

Cubs: They have one of the best offenses in baseball and are lacking starting pitching depth. While Eflin has struggled, he had good seasons in each of the past two years. He would be a steady arm for manager Craig Counsell to deploy down the stretch.

As for what a return could look like, the Cubs could offer former first round left-hander Jordan Wicks. Wicks, like Eflin, is more of a pitch-to-contact guy but gives the Orioles another steady arm with team control.

If the Orioles continue to accumulate young starting pitching depth, it’s possible that a couple of these guys could become quality options. Holding onto Eflin through a losing season accomplishes nothing.

Giants: A surprising contender early on, the Giants have a good collection of young, inexperienced pitchers and could be looking to add another veteran. Eflin, a pitcher who succeeds by making hitters put the ball in play, could thrive in that ballpark.

The Giants could offer an arm like Carson Whisenhunt or Keaton Winn, but the Orioles would probably have to kick in another piece. Fortunately, they have a surplus of good hitting prospects in the minor leagues and could entice the Giants.

That feels like a good strategy for the Orioles to deploy at this deadline. Be pseudo-sellers by getting rid of rentals but attach a decent prospect to them to buy a young arm.

3. Willing to Roll the Dice on Bryce Miller’s Upside?

Orioles Trade: 1B Ryan O’Hearn, OF Heston Kjerstad, RHP Nestor German (AA)

Mariners Trade: RHP Bryce Miller (MLB IL)

The Orioles and Mariners have been mocked as great potential trade partners for years now. The O’s have the young bats, and the Mariners have the arms.

Seattle’s offense has been good this season, but it isn’t very deep with quality options. By making this trade, O’Hearn could step in for Rowdy Tellez at first and Kjerstad would provide more upside in the outfield than Leody Taveras.

Trading a rental first baseman and a struggling former top prospect for a controllable starter doesn’t feel like enough. The Orioles are starting to develop some intriguing pitchers in the lower minors, one of which is German. The 23-year-old has a 33.1% strikeout rate between High-A and Double-A.

This is the trade that saves face for Mike Elias. It would require Kjerstad looking like an outfielder that could contribute for years to come by the deadline, as well as taking a risk in Miller’s injured elbow. The Orioles could even rest Miller for the remainder of the season if they are out of the hunt. That way, in 2026, his elbow could be good to go in a rotation that features Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez alongside Miller.

Admittedly, this one still feels like a longshot. It may take a younger commodity than the 26-year-old Kjerstad to get the Mariners to consider the deal. Perhaps trading top prospect Coby Mayo would entice Seattle more, but we have never seen Elias part with a prospect that acclaimed.

Summary

This trade deadline is of the utmost importance to the Orioles for them to right the ship in 2026.

President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias will need to use his rental trade chips, as well as organizational surplus on the hitting side, to find new pieces that are conducive of winning. In an optimal scenario, the Orioles neither commit to buying nor selling. They are simply looking for the best trades that they can find from a value perspective.

In some cases, like the Mullins mock trade, they function as a seller. They sell off an expiring asset to get controllable arms to help fortify their future rotation.

But in other cases, like the Eflin mock trade with the Giants, they attach a valuable prospect to a less valuable veteran piece with the same goal of acquiring better rotation depth.

Or they could even find themselves as true buyers, like in the case of the Miller mock trade. The Orioles may identify a young arm that they want, move multiple valuable assets to get him, and insert that guy as a crucial part of the team’s future plans.

The best plan is to simply find ways to get better for 2026 and beyond. The way that this pitching staff was constructed for 2025 simply cannot happen again under Elias’ watch. A year of Gunnar Henderson‘s team control is disappearing with nothing to show for it.