What Does Cade Horton to the IL Mean for the Cubs in October?

The Cubs’ Precautions With Horton

Although Horton has been excellent, it has been in a limited role. His longest outing of the season was only seven innings, where he shut the Guardians down in a 1-0 win on July 3. He only eclipsed 90 pitches four times, with his highest total being 94 against the Twins on July 9.

Horton was also removed from two games early this season. The first time against the Brewers on August 18 after just 2.2 innings and 61 pitches. In that instance, he was pulled due to a blister on his middle finger. It didn’t impact him too much, as he made his next scheduled start against the Angels five days later.

However, most recently, it was more serious. Horton was pulled after the third inning with just 29 pitches against the Mets on September 23 due to tightness in his mid-back and ribcage. An MRI revealed a rib fracture, and he was subsequently placed on the IL.

How Does This Impact the Cubs?

The chances are that Horton was going to be taking the ball Tuesday night for Game 1 of the Wild Card against the San Diego Padres. Now, it was announced veteran Matthew Boyd will make the start. So, what does this mean for the Cubs as they look for their first playoff victory since 2017?

As good of a season as Boyd had for the Cubs, there’s no looking past the fact that he hasn’t been at the level he was at earlier this season. Through his first 20 starts, there was serious consideration for Boyd to be in the NL Cy Young conversation.

He had a 2.20 ERA and an 11-3 record over 118.2 innings. However, since July 28, Boyd has a 5.16 ERA and a 4.63 FIP over 61.0 innings. In fact, Boyd is currently riding a nine-game stretch of giving up two earned runs or more dating back to August 8. 

The Cubs’ next best starting option is Shota Imanaga. After an excellent 2024 season, Imanaga has regressed in 2025. He spent some time on the IL earlier this year, and he has struggled since returning.

Since June 26, Imanaga has a 4.14 ERA and 4.99 FIP over 100.0 innings. He has given up a home run in nine consecutive games and is tied for fourth in the league with 31 given up on the year, despite having significantly fewer innings pitched than those above him on that list.

The next option for Counsell would be 35-year-old Colin Rea. Rea stepped in for the Cubs after Justin Steele went out with Tommy John surgery in April, ending his season. In that time, Rea has been serviceable, and he has been pretty good in the last two months.

Since August began, Rea has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.50 FIP. In his last four outings, Rea has struck out 29 batters in 23.1 innings, including a gem against the Reds where he went 7.0 innings, striking out 11 batters and only allowing a single run.

So with limited options, what will be Counsell’s plan for the starting rotation without Horton?

How do the Cubs and Padres Matchup?

The Padres have announced all of their starters for the series. Nick Pivetta, who had an outstanding 2025 posting a 2.87 ERA over 181.2 innings, will start Game 1. Dylan Cease, who struggled at times this season, will take the ball in Game . And Yu Darvish will go for Game 3, if needed.

The Cubs have only announced that Boyd will go in game one, but the loss of Horton has many speculating that Counsell may go with an opener for the following game. When you consider the top of the Padres’ lineup, an opener makes plenty of sense.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the best playoff performers in MLB. He has a .375/.474/.854 slash line in 13 career playoff games. Manny Machado is also a threat, slashing .275/.335/.460 in 2025. 

It could be a good move for the Cubs to opt for an opener to get through the first round of plate appearances for the top of the Padres’ lineup.

Someone like Andrew Kittredge, who, after being acquired at the trade deadline, posted a 3.32 ERA in 21.2 innings with a lot of those innings being high leverage. This could give way for fellow trade deadline acquisition Mike Soroka to enter the game next.

Looking Ahead

As for Horton, the earliest he could possibly return would be a potential Game 5 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, It’s hard to believe that he’ll be available until at least the NLCS should the Cubs make it there.

For now, the Cubs have a very talented Padres team to worry about. The dominance of the Padres bullpen will make starting pitching extremely important if the Cubs want to advance to a date with Milwaukee.

Without Horton, the Cubs’ playoff aspirations now rely on whether their banged up starting rotation can rise to the challenge.