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Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly pours beer over general manager Mike Hazen during celebrations after clinching a wild-card playoff spot following their game with the Houston Astros at Chase Field in Phoenix on Sept. 30, 2023. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What is Merrill Kelly's Market Value to the Diamondbacks?

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Oct 5, 2025 3:00 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a clear need to add starting pitching during the 2025-2026 offseason. General manager Mike Hazen made clear that was at or near the top of the priority list for for 2026.

That is because Zac Gallen is going into free agency, and Corbin Burnes will miss at least the first half of the season while recovering from Tommy John Surgery.

Merrill Kelly is Interested in Returning to the Diamondbacks

It is no secret that Merrill Kelly is interested in returning to the D-backs. He has stated that on numerous occasions, including during an interview with Arizona Diamondbacks On SI back in late July just before he was traded.

At the same time, he emphasized at this stage of his career winning is a priority. Asked if he would be open to coming back to Arizona, even if traded, he said the following:

"Extremely, I wouldn't harbor any type of hard feelings if I got traded. At this point in my career, my focus is to win. I don't know how many years I'm still gonna be doing this after this year. So that's my priority."

"I've always wanted to be here. I still want be here. If I don't get traded, I'm definitely not gonna be mad about it. But if I do, yeah, there's always a possibility that I would come back here."

"The front office knows how fond I am of being here and being home. I know my wife is fond of being here and being home. Regardless of what happens after the 31st, being here is never off the table."

Who are Merrill Kelly's Comparables?

There is a projected number that has been floating around, courtesy of the website Spotrac, that pegs Kelly's average annual value at $15.8 million for 2026. While that site normally does an excellent job, I believe in this case they have overestimated his market value.

Kelly will be entering his age-37 season in 2026. Spotrac is using significantly younger pitchers who signed multi-year deals at younger ages than Kelly to create their comparables. Those include Nathan Eovaldi (age 34 at the time of his signing), Michael Wacha (33), and Miles Mikolas (34).

The fact is there are very few pitchers that over the last five seasons that have signed multi-year deals at a comparable age to Kelly's 37. The below list is of players age 36 or older (age lowered one year to make list more inclusive).

Jack Sommers

Three future Hall of Famers in Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer, along with Kenta Maeda, simply do not make a viable comp list. The Maeda contract made little sense, as he pitched poorly in 2021 and 2023, and missed all of 2022 with injury.

There is one pitcher is a more interesting, but complicated comp to include. Charlie Morton signed a one-year deal worth $15 million with the Atlanta Braves entering his age-37 season in 2021.

He was fantastic, going 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA and a strikeout per nine rate of 10.5, thanks to a 96 MPH fastball and his signature curveball. He helped the Braves all the way to a world series title.

The Braves did not let Morton hit the open market. They gave him an extension worth $20 million for age 38, with an option for the same at age 39, which got picked up. Morton fell off in 2022 (9-6, 4.34 ERA) but rebounded somewhat in 2023 (14-12, 3.64 ERA).

So What is Merrill Kelly's Market Value to the Diamondbacks?

Over his four season, ages 34-36, Kelly has averaged 25 starts, and 145 innings, pitching to a 3.51 ERA and a 3.88 FIP, along with an 10-7 record. That's very good, but compared to Morton's output for ages 33-35, not quite the same.

Morton averaged 169 innings, a 3.24 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and a 15-5 record from 2017-2019 (2020 Pandemic season not included).

Considering that Kelly already missed significant time in 2024 with a shoulder injury, limiting him to 70 innings. He also has a past history with Thoracic Outlet Surgery, a blood clot and cramping issues in his medical profile.

While there might be a team out there that is willing to offer Kelly a two-year, $30 million contract, I doubt that team would be the Diamondbacks.

I expect the D-backs could offer something like a one-year deal worth $13 million plus a second year team option for another $12, with a $3 million buyout. That would make the first year guaranteed at $15 million, or two years, $25 million if the option is exercised.

On top of the that, the team could get creative with starts or innings incentives clauses, that could increase the value significantly.

For example, if Kelly were to exceed 25 starts in 2026, the second-year option could increase by several million, and/or become a vesting player option. They worked a similar deal with Jordan Montgomery in the past.

For more discussion on this topic, see also the Snake Territory Podcast at the 31:38 point of the video below