What to Expect from Astros Pitcher Ethan Pecko

It’s a deep arsenal, one that’s set up in large part by three fastballs: a four-seamer that sat as high as 97 MPH and averaged 94 MPH. His sinker, which sat at around the same velocity, is more of a true sinker, in terms of pitch profile. Then, there’s the high-80s cutter.

Now, mid-90s velocity is very good — but, perhaps, not the type of velocity one would associate with a high swing-and-miss fastball. But for Pecko, it was, as that pitch had a Whiff% of 32% down in Sugar Land. And as seen below, it’s a pitch that just plays well, inducing late swing-and-miss.

Aside from the fastballs, Pecko showed good feel for a slider and a big breaking curveball that sat in the high-70s.

Now, given that Pecko regularly used the sinker (the usage sat anywhere between 15-30% on a monthly basis), one would expect a lot of ground balls. That’s exactly what Pecko was able to do, as he induced a GB% just a tick above 50% from June 1 onward. And overall, opposing hitters barreled up his four-seamer and sinker just one time each this season in Sugar Land.

Any pitcher who wants to survive and thrive in the Pacific Coast League has to do that.

On top of that, Pecko was among the best pitchers in terms of chase since the start of June. Among pitchers who threw at least 250 registered balls out of the strike zone in Triple-A, Pecko’s 33.9% Chase% was the fifth-highest at the level over the last two-and-a-half months.

The Astros announced Ethan Pecko as the scheduled starter on August 19 against the Angels.

Analysis

It’s been an interesting year for the Astros’ rotation, for many reasons. Aside from the struggles of Tatsuya Imai and now the recently demoted Ronel Blanco, the Astros received contributions from unlikely sources. Namely, Peter Lambert, whow as a Minor League signing earlier this year.

Now, the youth wave can start to begin in Houston.

The Astros have a fair amount of pitching depth in the Minors, aside from Pecko. From a long-term view, Jackson Nezuh, Cole Hertzler, and Bryce Mayer represent just a few of the potential assets that the Astros have in their system. And Pecko becomes the first of that bunch to head to the Majors.

And from an overall standpoint, there’s not much left that Pecko needed to prove at Triple-A. While the ERA wasn’t great — again, that metric is not the be-all, end-all — the 23-year-old did everything he had to. Get opposing hitters to expand, limit hard contact, and mix up to get hitters unbalanced.

Lastly, it’s worth noting that the Astros get ahead of offseason business. Pecko would have been Rule 5-eligible had Houston not added him to the 40-man roster this fall. That point is moot now.