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Jun 19, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez (28) hits a two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

What to Expect from Top 5 Diamondbacks Trade Rentals?

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Jul 17, 2025 12:04 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lots of decisions to make over the next two weeks regarding who to trade and who to hold on to as the trade deadline approaches.

It all depends on the return and how much other teams are willing to offer. How much they are willing to offer depends on how deep their needs are and how they see the future performance of the player they're getting.

What happens in the future is all that matters to the buying team. What the player has done in the past has no value to the buying team, it simply informs the future expectations. Most teams are too sophisticated to look at just the most recent numbers and project the same going forward.

Add to that each of these players comes with only two months of control before becoming free agents, and the expected returns should be tempered somewhat. Teams are not buying the career accomplishments of these players, they are buying the next two months production only.

The following are Rest of Season (ROS) Depth Chart projection summaries from FanGraphs. These are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections, set to playing time projections.

We go one by one through the top five D-backs pending free agents.

Eugenio Suarez Projection

Jack Sommers

At first glance this projection seems woefully low for Suarez, especially the 12 homers and .772 OPS. After all he's hit 50 homers over his lat 162 games and has a .917 OPS in that span.

But these projections are heavily regressed, and the first half of 2024 happened, as did his very subpar 2023 in which he had a .714 OPS. Suarez came into 2025 with a preseason projection of .734 OPS, so the ROS .772 OPS number represents a considerable uptick.

Josh Naylor Projection

Jack Sommers

Naylor's projection for a .274 batting average and .793 OPS the rest of the way seems right in line with reasonable expectations. He came into the season with a .789 OPS projection, and that's seeing a slight uptick due to his current .817 OPS.

Naylor has 11 home runs on the season and is projected to hit eight more, which would give him 19 for the year. His original projection called for 23 homers. Chase Field is one of the toughest parks in MLB for left-hand batters to hit homers in according to Statcast.

Naylor might fare better playing home games in another park and in another division. Oracle Park in San Francisco and Petco Park in San Diego are also tough on lefties.

Randal Grichuk Projection

Jack Sommers

Randal Grichuk came into 2025 projected to hit .252 with a .722 OPS. So far he's hit .242 with a .747 OPS in 174 PA. Close enough. His projection going forward sees more or less the same, .249 with a .720 OPS.

All of these numbers are a far ways off from his 2024 final marks of .291 and .875. But he ended August last year with a .265 batting average and .755 OPS, before going off in an insanely hot month of September in which he hit .404 with seven homers in 51 PA.

The larger sample of his last three-plus seasons informs better than last season's final line inflated by one super hot month.

Merrill Kelly Projection

Jack Sommers

The projection systems have somewhat consistently under-projected Merrill Kelly. That is because he is the prototypical pitcher's pitcher that truly has the ability to out-perform his peripherals. Since 2022 he has a 3.42 ERA but a 3.75 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

For most pitchers those two numbers tend to converge once they get up around 1000 innings pitched. But Kelly is cerebral pitcher with a six-pitch mix who has a good pickoff move and induces an above-average number of double plays.

It all adds up to a guy who is a good bet to beat his 3.87 ERA projection the rest of the way.

Zac Gallen Projection

Jack Sommers

Considering how much Zac Gallen has struggled this year, pitching to a 5.40 ERA, with a still quite high 4.80 FIP, this projection for a 4.03 ERA may seem quite rosy. But the past informs the future, and Gallen's past does not only consist of his 20 starts so far this season.

Heading into the year, Gallen had a 3.69 ERA projection, so the 4.03 for rest of season already represents a significant downgrade in the world of projections.

There is surely a team out there who not only believes they can help Gallen improve, but who will believe he is certainly going to be better than their current fourth or fifth starter