What’s behind Jose Berrios’ up-and-down start to the season?

In total, Berrios gave up 14 fly balls with only three ground balls through five innings. Maybe chalk that up to opening day nerves, but his repertoire didn’t fool the Orioles that day. It seemed like he may have been tipping his pitches; that’s how hard the O’s hit Berrios that game.

Following that horrid performance, Berrios stormed back on April 1 to twirl an eight-strikeout performance against the Washington Nationals, coming just short of a quality start with 5.2 innings of two-run ball. Rather than leaving it to chance with a bevy of fly balls, Berrios split pretty evenly between ground balls and fly balls in that game.

But as is the usual pattern with Berrios, there’s a period of one to two good starts before he blows up again, which happened once again against the Orioles at Camden Yards, this time on April 13. Five innings of four-run ball, seven hits surrendered and a pair of home runs.

In that game, Berrios leaned heavily on his off-speed pitches as his breaking ball was not effective. Kudos to him for adjusting on the fly. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays stormed back to win that game 7-6.

Generally, Berrios’ changeup is the only pitch that generates swings and misses outside the zone, while his changeup and sinker are the only two pitches that generate whiffs inside the strike zone. So if his sinker and changeup are working well, chances are you’re going to see a half-decent game from Berrios.

Looking under the hood, it’s difficult to pinpoint one singular stat or trend which explains his inconsistency this year. Despite a boost in strikeout rate, his walk rate and home run rate are up a tick from last year. And his 1.423 WHIP is on par with his first full season as a Blue Jay, when it was 1.453, arguably the worst full season of Berrios’ career.

The only red flag I noticed was the ineffectiveness of his four-seam fastball this season. Last year, he used that pitch 18.6% of the time and opponents slugged .480 that pitch. Compare that to Berrios using his four-seamer 20.9% of the time this season, and opponents slugging .640 on that pitch.

Hitters are also whiffing on that pitch only 8.2% of the time this season, compared to 19.7% of the time this year. Of the five different weapons in Berrios’ arsenal, his four-seam fastball has been the most hittable pitch in 2025. That’s a bit concerning when you don’t have the velocity to overpower hitters with a heater anymore.

The velocity of his four-seamer is also down about one mile per hour compared to last year, which could explain why batters are teeing off on that pitch more often in 2025. Berrios’ sinker velocity is also down nearly a mile an hour year over year, but the Blue Jays played several cold-weather games to start the season, so that shouldn’t be of much concern.

One saving grace is opponents aren’t doing big damage on that pitch (Berrios only has four extra-base hits off his fastball this year), but the issue is those hits clog up the base paths, which lead to more damage off his primary pitches like his sinker or his slurve.

Just for fun, let’s look at some numbers from Berrios’ last start on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays. He generated 10 whiffs, which led to four strikeouts of Rays batters. At first blush, this doesn’t jump out as being a “bad” start.

But then you compare it to this one below, Berrios’ best start of the season thus far. This was from April 7, when he four-hit the Red Sox over seven innings and only had two strikeouts. Two whiffs total, only on his changeup. He did not fool the Red Sox whatsoever, but he kept the ball on the ground and in the air and let his teammates pick him up on defense.

This runs counter to what most would think, that when Berrios is generating swings and misses, you’d think he’s having a good day on the mound. So far this season at least, it’s quite the opposite. Berrios is usually at his best when he’s not chasing strikeouts and keeping his sinker at the bottom of the zone and inducing ground balls galore.

It’s a formula that’s worked thus far this season for Chris Bassitt, so why not let one of the best defensive teams in baseball do what they’re paid to do and help their starting pitcher out? If you’re chasing strikeouts, chances are your pitch count is getting high by the fifth or sixth inning, but deferring to the defense can allow the starting pitcher to go deeper in the game.

Through this process of poring over the numbers, I realized this is the guy Berrios is and always will be. A mixed bag is the quintessential Jose Berrios experience. Start-to-start could be a stark viewing experience depending on how his pitches are working.

So buckle in for the ride and pray you might witness a good day at the office for Berrios as opposed to one of his worst.