Which Outfielder Will the Boston Red Sox Trade This Winter?

Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela had a breakout 2025 campaign that led to him receiving a Gold Glove at the end of the season. He was also one of the nominees for the All-MLB team outfield.

What makes Rafaela so special to this team is his fielding ability. He finished as the number one overall outfielder in terms of fielding run value in the entire MLB. He primarily played center field, but did log a few games at second base.

Signed to a team-friendly eight-year, $50 million extension, Rafaela’s glove alone could pay off that investment, but there is still some pressure on the bat. Especially once you get to the tail-end of that extension when he starts making north of $10 million.

If the Red Sox shopped Rafaela, teams would be interested, but the contract may be more valuable to Boston than it is on the market, especially in comparison to the other trade chips the Red Sox could dangle.

Wilyer Abreu

Now Wilyer Abreu is the first of the outfielders who has a realistic possibility of being moved this offseason. Abreu finished last year slashing a line of .247/.317/.469. He also hit 22 home runs, which was the most so far in the 26-year-old’s career.

The now two-time Gold Glove winner has continued to make great strides, adding power to his game, which gives him another dimension of value to both the Red Sox and any other team that may be interested in pursuing a trade for his services.

Another aspect that makes Abreu extremely valuable is the fact that he is still pre-arbitration. That means he will make the affordable minimum salary of just $780,000 in 2026, making him one of the best valued players in the game for the upcoming season.

He then has three years of arbitration waiting for him from 2027-2029, before he hits free agency in 2030, giving the Red Sox, or any team that acquires him, four years of control.

For the Red Sox, keeping Abreu means keeping their two Gold Glovers with Rafaela in center and Wilyer in right, while also freeing up some extra money that could be invested in the roster in other ways. The financial flexibility that Abreu provides will not only be attractive to the Red Sox, though, it could also be attractive on the market.

The Red Sox are expected to use their outfielders to shop for some more frontline pitching, and if they are acquiring some from a team in a rebuild, the extra year of control could mean everything compared to trading for a more win-now player in Jarren Duran.

Jarren Duran

The former All-Star and All-Star Game MVP had a little bit of a down year from his previous campaign last year. He finished with a slash line of .256/.332/.442, which are very respectable numbers.

The 29-year-old has already agreed to a one-year, $7.7 million contract to avoid another year of arbitration earlier this offseason. By the Red Sox doing this, they avoid the issues they had last offseason, agreeing on a contract.

They also lock in Duran’s price for 2026, which will help when they shop him, as there will be no arbitration hearing to work around. A super-two player, Duran is in year two of four in arbitration, so he comes with three years of control.

This makes him a very attractive piece on the market, while still being the outfielder the Red Sox hold the least control of.

The most expensive outfielder on their roster in 2026, Duran is a bargain on the market, and one that comes with some star power that will have a new fan base dreaming of his potential.

In 2024, Duran was one of the very best players in Major League Baseball.

In terms of fWAR, Duran was the seventh-best player in the league, with his 6.8 fWAR trailing only Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, and Francisco Lindor.

Wilyer Abreu is a good player, but he has yet to show the ability to be a near-seven-win player. Instead, Abreu is a safe bet to settle into being a 3-4 win player, with some upside for a bit more if he can turn his 20-HR power to 25-30 HR power.

In 2024, Abreu posted a 3.1 fWAR, which he followed up with a 2.4 fWAR in 2025. Part of that dip in production was really just tied to games played, as Abreu battled through an oblique injury that halted a great first half of the season, before dealing with a calf injury in August.

In the first half, Abreu hit 18 of his 22 home runs across 81 games played, posting a solid 119 wRC+. In the second half, he only mustered an 86 wRC+ and played just 31 games.

Duran had a down season in 2025, but he still posted a 3.9 fWAR, a better mark than Abreu ever has up to this point.

Really, it was a tale of two halves for both of the Red Sox outfielders in question, as Duran flipped a mediocre first half (103 wRC+, .749 OPS) into a much stronger second half (124 wRC+, .818 OPS), which ultimately got him to a pretty solid place when it was all said and done.

For back-to-back seasons, Duran has led the league in triples, hitting 14 in 2024 and 13 in 2025. Duran led MLB in doubles in 2024 as well, smacking 48, a total that dropped off to 41 in 2025.

Duran’s home run total dipped as well, from 21 in 2024 to 16 in 2025. His OPS was exactly 60 points less year-over-year, with 50 of those points coming from his slugging percentage, and only 10 coming from his on-base percentage.

There was a little uptick in strikeouts for Duran in 2025, going from 21.8% to 24.3%, but he also saw a climb in his walk rate. While the increases have sometimes been marginal, Duran has improved his walk rate with each season in the big leagues, seeing a big jump in 2025 from 7.3% to 8.6%.

The uptick in walks offset some of the drop-off in batting average, with Duran’s average slipping to .256 after hitting .285 in 2024 and .295 in 2023.

For contending teams, Duran is the most attractive trade chip the Red Sox have among their outfielders (because Anthony is so clearly off the table). We might have seen his floor over the next three seasons with his 2024 campaign, which was still a four-win player (3.9 fWAR).

In 2024, we likely saw the ceiling, and that ceiling could be one of the very best center fielders in baseball. Which is one final wrinkle to Duran’s trade value.

At a time when the league has too few good center fielders, Duran has been relegated to left field because he just happens to play on the team that has the best defensive center fielder in the game.

With that said, in Duran’s breakout 2024 campaign, he played more center than left, and graded out very well in both spots. In center field, Duran was worth 17 DRS and 7 OAA. His 17 DRS actually led all center fielders in 2024, with his OAA placing him 15th.

While some teams would keep Duran in the corner because they might already have a good center fielder on their roster, there are plenty of others who could put Duran back in center field, where he will be even more valuable in terms of his WAR output.

Which Outfielder Should the Red Sox Trade?

The one thing that is abundantly clear right now, the Red Sox outfield is going to start revolving around Roman Anthony in 2026 and beyond. This is the new face of the franchise, full stop.

Anthony could really play any spot the Red Sox wanted in the outfield, but it is most likely that they will keep him in one of the corners, while keeping Ceddane Rafaela’s Gold Glove in center.

This puts all eyes on Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran this offseason, and there could be a case made for trading either guy.

In 2026, the Red Sox are probably a better team if they keep Duran and trade Abreu, as his bat would be a bigger loss to their lineup.

On the other hand, defensively, the Red Sox may value keeping Abreu. He has mastered playing right field at Fenway, which is not easy to do.

Keeping Abreu means putting Anthony in front of the Green Monster, a much easier position to ease him into his first full big league season, where he will be expected to carry more of the load offensively.

Ultimately, it comes down to what the market says and which player is valued more to land the pitcher that the Red Sox need.

If the Red Sox are targeting a potential frontline arm from a rebuilding team, like Joe Ryan from the Twins or MacKenzie Gore from the Nationals, Abreu could be more attractive because he comes with a fourth year of control.

Contending teams like the Tigers, Phillies, or Padres could all use help in the outfield, and a star player like Duran could be more attractive in a win-now situation.

The Red Sox are sitting in a great position with a lot of premium chips that they can float in potential trades this offseason. We will find out soon enough how good Craig Breslow is at playing poker, and what moves he will make to put together a winner in Boston in 2026 and beyond.