Who Is the Padres’ Ace Heading Into 2026?

The Padres’ rotation struggled last season, finishing 16th in baseball with a 4.07 ERA. Despite losing one of their best arms in Dylan Cease this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller is hoping the pitching staff will improve in 2026.

That improvement is expected to come from better health. In 2025, only ace Nick Pivetta and Cease eclipsed 150 innings, but Michael King and Joe Musgrove are expected to be far more impactful this season, essentially serving as two informal free-agent additions.

With that said, the return of two high-profile arms could affect the pecking order of the rotation. Who is the ace of the staff heading into 2026?

Nick Pivetta

This is the simple answer, as Pivetta carried the staff throughout a difficult 2025 campaign. He led the team with 181.2 innings pitched and dominated in those appearances, posting a 2.87 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.7 WAR and 13 wins.

He also opened the Padres’ postseason against the Cubs, tossing five innings and allowing two runs at Wrigley Field.

The one concern with officially labeling Pivetta as the team’s ace is that his expected metrics do not fully match his surface-level dominance.

While the results were elite, his xERA sat at 3.95 and his xFIP at 3.85. Both numbers are still solid, but they suggest that he benefited from some luck in 2025. He also posted a .235 BABIP, which is likely to rise this season and could lead to some ERA regression.

Production-wise, Pivetta was the clear star of the staff, but given the gap between his results and expected metrics, he isn’t the automatic choice to take the ball on Opening Day.

Michael King

King presents the other potential ace entering the season. Musgrove remains the leader of the staff, but as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery, he is unlikely to serve as the No. 1 starter.

King was effective when available last season but was limited by injuries, throwing just 73.1 innings. In those appearances, he posted a 3.34 ERA and 4.42 FIP, though he also struggled with expected metrics, finishing with a 4.30 xERA and 4.20 xFIP.

The case for King as staff ace stems from his healthy and dominant 2024 season, when he produced elite results and strong underlying numbers. Across 173.2 innings, he posted a 2.95 ERA and 3.33 FIP. While the expected metrics showed some luck, they remained excellent with a 3.57 xERA and 3.50 xFIP.

If the Padres believe King can return to that form in 2026, he may be the Opening Day starter. That decision, however, could be viewed as disrespectful to Pivetta, who carried the staff throughout 2025.

It should be an intriguing season for the Padres’ rotation, which carries health questions with King and Musgrove, along with performance questions surrounding Randy Vásquez and J.P. Sears. Still, having two legitimate ace-level arms is a good problem to have.

Expect both King and Pivetta to be at their best for the Padres’ in 2026.

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