Why Houston Should Consider Retaining Daulton Varsho

I am going to confess that it was not the ideal trade I was expecting for the Houston Astros, although I appreciate Daulton Varsho’s defense and the bat that used to be timely.

Between 2023 and 2025, Varsho built a 7.3 fWAR that represented 54.5% of his 13.4 total fWAR before entering the 2026 season, a mark that placed him at the best moment of his career since he arrived with the Blue Jays in 2023.

After four seasons in which he recorded at least 18 home runs—with three of them hitting 20 or more—Varsho’s offense collapsed in 2026 with a .221/.281/.355 slash line, just 12 home runs and 40 RBIs in 140 games. His OPS was .636, well below the .709 he has accumulated in his career.

Even so, Varsho finished with a positive 0.8 fWAR because his defense in center field remained elite and he contributed 1.2 BsR, FanGraphs’ metric for evaluating the contribution of hitters on the basepaths.

In any case, the most concerning point of his game going forward remains the offense, and it is clear that the Astros need Varsho to be able to contribute his full potential.

What could bring a little hope is that his collapse did not happen throughout the entire year, as from April to June Varsho started hot with the bat. He averaged 101, 117 and 116 wRC+ in each of those months, combining mostly his occasional displays of power.

He finished that first half of the season hitting .240/.308/.387, with an OPS close to .700 (.696) and a 94 wRC+. He was below his usual performance for the Blue Jays in recent seasons, but at that point in the season, there is always hope that the second half could be the stretch to make the big adjustments and get back into a rhythm.

It did not happen.

Varsho arrived in Houston at the trade deadline and closed the second half without being able to get out of the slump. His OPS fell from .696 to .555 after the All-Star break and he averaged a baffling 54 wRC+.

His swing, which can frequently find pitches and hit them skillfully to the opposite field, was only working when he managed to pull the ball, producing a .947 OPS.

The expected statistics also did not provide indications that Varsho was having less luck, as his .195 average in the second half of the season was quite close to the projected .211 xBA, as was his .312 slugging, only .036 points below the .348 xSLG. Everything was indicating that the problem remained in his ability when he hit the ball, not in an inability to find contact.

Why Should the Astros Keep Varsho?