Why MLB free agency will likely underwhelm Cleveland Guardians fans

It’s been nearly a decade since the Cleveland baseball team made a splash in free agency. Cleveland bought in on the big boys table after making a World Series run in 2016 by landing free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion (.848 OPS in CLE), for what was at the time the largest contract in franchise history.

Since then? Cleveland has walked the clearance aisle and landed illustrious names like Yonder Alonso (.738 OPS), Josh Bell (.701 OPS), Mike Zunino (.578 OPS), Eddie Rosario (.685 OPS) and Carlos Santana (.650 OPS). Spoiler alert: it’s time to walk the clearance aisle again.

Three factors play against the Guardians this offseason.

1) This is a really weak free agent class.

2) The league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) with the MLB Players’ Association expires after the 2026 season, which means a lockout is possible in 2027.

3) The Guardians’ ownership group will not allocate the money to swing above clearance aisle deals. 

The Guardians are not going to hand out the $300M+ it takes to land Kyle Tucker or Pete Alonso will command above the $20M/AAV contract that made Encarnacion the franchise’s richest player in 2016. Past that, not many names stand worthy of deals above the Guardians’ typical reclamation project contracts.

With a lockout sitting over the league’s head, revenue disagreements, and TV contracts, it would be shocking for an organization like Cleveland to make a long-term commitment to anyone not in-house this offseason. 

If the Guardians want to make a splash this offseason, it will have to come via trade.

The Guardians’ most likely candidate in free agency is the return of Lane Thomas on a “prove it” one year contract. Thomas will likely platoon with Chase DeLauter in the outfield if the centerfielder is brought back to Cleveland. 

The Guardians have money to spend (by their standards) this offseason with little money tied up away from Jose Ramirez and Tanner Bibee.

The first order of business with this money should be offering a contract extension to Gavin Williams. Williams threw 70 second half innings to the tune of a 2.18 ERA and .188 batting average against. In addition to Williams, the Guardians have entered “extend or trade” territory with Steven Kwan. If an extension is not reached with Kwan this offseason, he returns to the top of trade talks if the Guardians stumble out of the gate. 

A bat is not falling out of the sky to save the Cleveland Guardians. In an offseason with a “surplus” of money and zero no-brainer free agents, it’s time to keep the kids home.