Why Rays' starting pitching will determine AL East race

As tension builds in the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays still figure to be a central character in the playoff race. Their playoff hopes, and the shape of the division, rely now on the team’s starting pitching as the second half of the season approaches.

The most notable change came with the limitation of Drew Rasmussen’s workload as he’s pitching through his first healthy season since 2022. His most recent start was two innings, followed by Joe Boyle in bulk relief. Rasmussen has been a keystone in Tampa’s success with a 2.82 ERA, so Boyle will have to be more than an adequate fill-in. 

Depending on how long this new strategy lasts for Rasmussen's shortened starts, a greater emphasis will be placed on Boyle's performance. 

"The organization's been absolutely incredible to me. And so I think it does two things. It lets us get the Joe Boyle Experience, which is electric, and then it also allows me to just stay on routine, as well as limit some of the innings for this year. When they brought the idea to me a couple days ago, it was something I'm on board with, obviously, because I think they are always looking out for my best interests," Rasmussen said about his limited innings, per MLB.com's Patrick Donnelly.

Elsewhere in the rotation, Taj Bradley (4.79 ERA) and Shane Baz (4.34 ERA) are likewise intriguing talents that would be the envy of other wild-card contenders. At the back end of a rotation, they provide immense upside, but they must provide reliable performances throughout the second half for Tampa to find its way back to the top of the division.

Baz has given up at least three runs in six of his last eight starts, but he has only given up more than three runs a single time in that span. He's completely refashioned his pitch mix with a new cutter, relying less on his fastball and slider. It's been a remarkable shift that has yielded solid results, but he is already at a career-high in innings pitched. For a team with several pitchers recovering from serious injuries, Baz's endurance throughout the second half will be a necessary component. 

Bradley comes with more questions. His strikeout rate has tumbled this year. He has a 5.56 ERA since the start of June, and he isn't getting batters to chase. Although those are serious limitations in his profile, he's been effective lately in limiting hard contact and forcing groundballs. Forcing poor contact is one small factor in his overall performance, but it's an important one as Bradley works through bumpy outings. 

The Rays can stand at the top of the division once the season is over, but it's going to require a decisive stretch from players like Boyle, Baz and Bradley. For Tampa to be a true contender, this staff will have to be elite for several more months. 

If Tampa's starting pitchers build on their first-half momentum, it will be a bigger storyline than any trade acquisition it might make. The talent in this rotation is as enigmatic as it is excellent, but if this staff stays healthy, the Rays could challenge anyone in the American League.