Why trading Jacob deGrom is easier said than done

We are now roughly six weeks from the MLB trade deadline, and while it’s obvious stars like Manny Machado and Mike Moustakas will be wearing new uniforms come August, the most fascinating unanswered question is the status of Mets ace Jacob deGrom. It’s understandable why the Mets would at least consider listening on deGrom, but as New York’s first-year pitching coach Dave Eiland eloquently said last week, pitchers like deGrom don’t grow on trees, and to move him would be asinine.

In a season that started with so much promise for New York, a steady month and a half of mediocre baseball has them sitting at 31-45, in fourth place in the NL East, and buried 10.5 games out of a wild card spot. The Mets have been hampered with both injuries and underperformance, something that has become a seemingly yearly trend for them. With a roster among the oldest in baseball, it is looking like if not a rebuild, at least a reset could be in order.

So, how exactly can they accomplish that?

As difficult a pill as it would be to swallow, the team needs to consider trading arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball right now, Jacob deGrom. Problem is, that is a complicated proposition that would be much more than just "trade or no trade." Most players moved in July are pending free agents who are essentially rental pieces, acquired to help improve their new teams' chances to be the last ones standing at the end of October. In deGrom, the Mets possess a dominant ace who is under a cost-controlled contract through the 2020 season. Players like that rarely, if ever, become available in trade, and while it’s far from a guarantee New York will move him, the Mets have at least hinted they’ll answer the phone.

But what would it take to land the star righty? Well, you’d better be comfortable with essentially gutting your farm system if you want to place a phone call to Mets GM Sandy Alderson. While throwing a little bit of cold water on the idea deGrom would be traded at all, a Mets source did recently indicate that an offer of six young players may be enough to get them to change their stance. Despite how good deGrom is, or that his arrival would in all probability make his new team the favorite to win the World Series this fall, justifying a six-for-one swap would be very difficult for just about any club, particularly the ones that have been most connected to the deGrom situation, starting with the Mets’ cross-town rivals in the Bronx.

On paper, the Mets and Yankees line up pretty well for a swap. The Amazins’ biggest issue right now is that with few exceptions, their everyday lineup is old, slow and unathletic. For them to move deGrom, the package they’d be bringing back must meet specific, yet easily discernible criteria. A package that includes multiple highly touted pitchers who could potentially ascend to the top of their rotation someday, offsetting some of their ace’s absence, in addition to multiple young position players, preferably infielders, is a good place to start. The Bombers are already one of the best teams in baseball but do have a clear need in their rotation, and they possess the type of dynamic, athletic infielders the Mets desperately need. But these two teams rarely do business with one another, and the prospect of them coming together on a trade of this magnitude is exceptionally unlikely. That said, a hypothetical deal between the two New York teams that would have deGrom changing boroughs could look something like this:

Yankees receive:
SP Jacob deGrom

Mets receive:
2B Gleyber Torres
3B Miguel Andujar
SP Justus Sheffield
SP Chance Adams
1B Tyler Austin
SS/2B Thairo Estrada

For a Yankees trade offer to be taken seriously, the haul would have to START with rising star second baseman Gleyber Torres, but just last week Brian Cashman declared that Torres isn’t going anywhere. That alone essentially squashes any dreams Bombers fans have of seeing deGrom in pinstripes, and it’s not hard to see why Cashman feels that way.

The Mets could immediately install Torres as their everyday second baseman, with current starter Asdrubal Cabrera a prime trade candidate in his own right. Andujar would become the long-term answer at third base, while Estrada would bring solid depth to every infield position. Sheffield and Adams are both highly regarded throughout the game, and the Mets would hope that they would eventually become two-fifths of their future rotation. Austin would bring versatility along with a talented right-handed bat. 

From the Yankees' prospective, they would probably be OK dealing the two pitchers, Austin and Estrada, but they would likely prefer to build this trade around outfield prospect Clint Frazier, one of the more highly regarded young players in the game in his own right. The issue there is the Mets already have five outfielders who have started a plethora of games for them over the past few seasons under contract through 2020.

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Another team that makes a world of sense for deGrom is the Atlanta Braves, an upstart team that is competing ahead of schedule. Like the Yankees, though, they would face infinite challenges in engaging the Mets in a trade of this ilk. A general rule in baseball trades is that you are going to have to pay a premium to do business within a division, and what the Braves would have to give up to acquire deGrom is almost unfathomable. Atlanta’s system is stacked, and the Braves do have the pieces to force the Mets' hand, but look what it would likely take:

Braves receive:
SP Jacob deGrom

Mets receive:
3B Austin Riley
SP Max Fried
SP Mike Soroka
SP Luiz Gohara
SP Kolby Allard
C Alex Jackson

This package would undoubtedly be enough to get deGrom to Atlanta, but it would be baffling for the Braves to pull the trigger on this. Riley has long been considered Atlanta’s third baseman of the future, a distinction he would take with him to Queens. With four pitchers included in this trade, the Mets would be stockpiling as many talented arms as possible to set their rotation up for long-term success. Jackson is a former first-round pick who has yet to blossom, but catchers are often late bloomers, and from New York’s prospective it would be worth the flier.

Other teams that could potentially think about inquiring on deGrom could include the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers and Diamondbacks, but each and every one of those clubs would face the same insane price tag the Yankees and Braves would encounter. The issue for prospective buyers is that the Mets are not even remotely desperate to make a trade and thus have all the leverage. A team would have to drastically overpay to make a move happen, and New York has no reason to lower the price tag. Remember, this is the same franchise that is still living down the Tom Seaver trade from 40 years back. The Mets don't want make the same mistake again.