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Wild Things — Walk Prop Cheat Sheet, 6/12
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

As betting becomes more and more ubiquitous, we've witnessed an ever-growing interest in player props, perceived as somewhat softer markets due to access and specialization. When I started polling the audience for what they'd like to see or had trouble scraping, walk props were easily the most popular answer.

I placed all of today's probable starters' 2025 walk and ball rates next to their opponent, plus where that offense ranks in taking free passes.

Walk Prop Cheat Sheet, June 12th

  • MIL Jacob Misiorowski (AAA) — 12.3% BB, 36.4% Ball vs. STL 6.6% BB, Rank 27
  • NYY Will Warren — 11.0% BB, 39.5% Ball vs. KC 5.3% BB, Rank 30
  • NYM Kodai Senga — 10.9% BB, 39.4% Ball vs. WSH 6.3% BB, Rank 28
  • SF Hayden Birdsong — 9.3% BB, 38.1% Ball vs. COL 6.8% BB, Rank 26
  • PIT Andrew Heaney — 8.1% BB, 35.0% Ball vs. CHC 8.2% BB, Rank 15
  • HOU Framber Valdez — 8.1% BB, 35.5% Ball vs. CHW 9.1% BB, Rank 8
  • KC Seth Lugo — 7.3% BB, 35.9% Ball vs. NYY 10.6% BB, Rank 1
  • TEX Patrick Corbin — 7.2% BB, 37.3% Ball vs. MIN 8.5% BB, Rank 12
  • COL Antonio Senzatela — 7.0% BB, 37.5% Ball vs. SF 10.0% BB, Rank 2
  • BAL Dean Kremer — 6.0% BB, 34.1% Ball vs. DET 7.3% BB, Rank 23
  • CHW Davis Martin — 5.5% BB, 36.7% Ball vs. HOU 6.0% BB, Rank 29
  • MIN Bailey Ober — 5.1% BB, 31.9% Ball vs. TEX 7.5% BB, Rank 21
  • CHC Jameson Taillon — 4.7% BB, 32.4% Ball vs. PIT 8.5% BB, Rank 13
  • WSH Mike Soroka — 4.6% BB, 32.7% Ball vs. NYM 9.9% BB, Rank 3
  • STL Sonny Gray — 4.6% BB, 33.4% Ball vs. MIL 9.4% BB, Rank 6
  • DET Tarik Skubal — 2.2% BB, 29.0% Ball vs. BAL 7.5% BB, Rank 20

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

Doesn't look great for overs today — it's stoppable forces versus movable objects. All the high-BB pitchers face the most aggressive teams (and vice-versa). I'm not betting into this market today but Will Warren O1.5BB, Andrew Heaney O1.5BB and Jameson Taillon u1.5BB were on the bubble.

Thanks so much reading, it's been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page. Don't be shy — reach out to me via DM anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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